{"slug":"iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568-685-996-469-827","title":"Iran leadership change by December 31?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-12-31","score":1.372,"forecast":0.065,"crowd":0.065,"live_quote":0.065,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568-685-996-469-827","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":180,"at":"2026-11-13T22:15:24.642Z","crowd":0.085,"forecast":0.085,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"06525f0f9493e7d072221b59035424e09f18709760923103bc584a0063e718a4","prev_hash":"f82df8d5de2e0f397f8f9ed8e9d4bd2737efaa77419184b29d76042c568bedb7","tokens":881},{"id":204,"at":"2026-11-14T02:15:24.470Z","crowd":0.065,"forecast":0.065,"trigger":"6 new signals","hash":"6117d0706aab5ff819d9471fb0da1044458c53e5b659429586fd5af4b5d36046","prev_hash":"642310c976d09b98a13f25c97fe48f14ddc483a73b0dcbc4d87e18b33f4183fb","tokens":855},{"id":218,"at":"2026-11-14T09:15:24.704Z","crowd":0.065,"forecast":0.065,"trigger":"1 new signal","hash":"5bcb279654f579154ba6ca31d32373d9da90e55927e4e5c4d14c2892160719c6","prev_hash":"045345e6e9e03cb0a9bc6958d507b28ab452d6b7ddadce9fdee2e16805c9e9fd","tokens":851},{"id":249,"at":"2026-11-14T15:15:24.211Z","crowd":0.065,"forecast":0.065,"trigger":"5 new signals","hash":"f1637f4a1a4c947e483604f70c3c43bfdfbab67f3779aad1fc5bdecc29702ddc","prev_hash":"afe5a80d943405b5ae1fec403f856ff8a3267539d948873219499ca51daa21f3","tokens":894}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"'F the Iranian leadership,' says Treasury Sec. Bessent on Iran threat","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxQWlVVRGZTa2I2M1RlNlREVTZqd0k4dF9KeVVNLTZWSTk3aXVNVmpMUXFDLWRhOXhkS0s1ZEJBQXE1ZFdDYkdFeEp6WU9oSm5rOG5yeVdpaFZjdE5lN1lTSmZtQklnalNrdVBwcGp5cUo1a3ViVm01RFVnbkQ3dVNpTlZpYU1lX3hCUzQ5ZGl0R0RhRVV6dTNERDVCM2p3cG1GT2NWbzFHTkFob2dK?oc=5","source":"demand","date":"2026-11-13"},{"id":"E2","title":"How does Iran view shift in US approach after JD Vance ordered away?","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/14/how-does-iran-view-shift-in-us-approach-after-vance-ordered-away?traffic_source=rss","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-14"},{"id":"E3","title":"Iran says three tankers hit naval mines in Strait of Hormuz","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiS0FVX3lxTE5fajlZNmlZaHdMQmowREdoQVFKYzRPV09SR3hwV0FhR1ZJUUMzdkwtZXo4dVZTekVpZ3kxSjNUWkhhS2hWOHVMd25vcw?oc=5","source":"demand","date":"2026-11-14"},{"id":"E4","title":"Iran says oil tanker on fire after naval mine strike in eastern Strait of Hormuz","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTFBNVjhPM3hwZ1NUdmp1cjJsTjZpc1hhYlBObHFZeVBYX0VhbTBPVEd4RHhrbmxMOG9ISEQ5MWFVSG5VQWR4d1NCQ1pjQWtCMkk3dGNyV2dGYTN5UzRlZXVBTVRzaEVScTVBd1E?oc=5","source":"demand","date":"2026-11-14"},{"id":"E5","title":"Oil tanker on fire in Hormuz after hitting mine, Iran’s navy says","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxPZmV4dDV4ak5kYkR4LTdQd3NjV1dwUlpENXBYQnlCanB1RGVQa3gtR1AzNUFwY3NYaXBOaUhCZ3Izb0dET3FXX1czNWlXc0tjcjJMUWJKRExmNzBURUx4VWdaQU5CdXBjZkhENUpOOUFscGxWanlDWFdmRGphLUxRT1FkMms3aFZQSkt0dXBCWC0wN2ZGV1A0aUpBSkFkZHZ5RlQycGRyT2VGMWhMT2c?oc=5","source":"demand","date":"2026-11-14"},{"id":"E6","title":"Iran’s Navy Says Oil Tanker on Fire After Hitting Mine in Hormuz - ASHARQ AL-AWSAT English","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqwFBVV95cUxNM0g0Wi1Qa24tZUxSeUcxOW1wWTdua09NUHRHakFIUFQ2cTZfWnJlVUpXZ25sYTg5MjFZeUhrSEFXVGkzTElXUGdDbG9XLXZheGI1MjRJQ1NuLTNmMEo0cmpWNTllYUxaX2xENE8wVXRVTGdoMENMZVdKX0FDeks5NFRqWEcxWGo5QW5oWkRLU2E1Ujc4cWpEZXNhSVpQWFB5MmxMMldPc1k4dlk?oc=5","source":"demand","date":"2026-11-14"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headlines describe ongoing tensions and a tanker incident, but none directly indicate a leadership change in Iran by year-end, and the crowd price already reflects this low-probability geopolitical noise.","watch":"Any official announcement from Iran's Supreme Leader or state media about succession or political restructuring."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headlines show elevated US-Iran tensions and naval incidents in Hormuz, but these are familiar patterns of confrontation that do not directly threaten regime stability or leadership continuity; the crowd price likely already reflects baseline geopolitical risk.","watch":"Any announcement of mass protests, clerical defections, or IRGC internal crackdowns in Iran"}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?","yes":0.985,"vol24":311178,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15"},{"slug":"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-8-20261108","title":"US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?","yes":0.255,"vol24":88301,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-8-20261108"},{"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31-415","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?","yes":0.685,"vol24":60112,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31-415"},{"slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","yes":0.075,"vol24":57327,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027"},{"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-30","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?","yes":0.865,"vol24":56433,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-30"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-11","start":92.14,"now_date":"2026-11-11","now":92.14,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":11.964,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568-685-996-469-827","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-12-31"},"generated_at":"2026-11-14T16:49:36.972Z"}