{"slug":"iran-leadership-change-by-november-30","title":"Iran leadership change by November 30?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-11-30","score":1.349,"forecast":0.023,"crowd":0.023,"live_quote":0.023,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/iran-leadership-change-by-november-30","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":13,"at":"2026-11-12T13:15:24.233Z","crowd":0.0225,"forecast":0.0225,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"d4bca24c8794abd647ae144e6288d604796f32edee5765d260658877748f11a3","prev_hash":"644ef244b1e8a4c6f13d0ff34b2e816a298d4b6f7accc38ecb43d9c9a2765c2a","tokens":906},{"id":17,"at":"2026-11-12T14:15:24.510Z","crowd":0.0225,"forecast":0.0225,"trigger":"1 new 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No Longer Needed","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/us/politics/rubio-iran-war.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E4","title":"No Good Choices on Iran","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/world/iran-trump-war-hegseth-impeach.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E5","title":"Son of Iran's shah receives 'Freedom Prize' in Frankfurt","url":"https://www.dw.com/en/son-of-iran-s-shah-receives-freedom-prize-in-frankfurt/a-79885661?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E6","title":"Brent Briefly Hits $94 After Trump Says U.S. Has No Need for Iran Deal","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Brent-Briefly-Hits-94-After-Trump-Says-US-Has-No-Need-for-Iran-Deal.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headlines describe the war winding down but do not directly address Iran's leadership structure or succession, and the crowd already prices in a 2.3% chance, so no new information justifies a move.","watch":"Any announcement of a change in Iran's Supreme Leader or political succession before November 30."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":-0.5,"cites":["E1","E2","E3"],"mechanism":"Trump declaring Iran war 'effectively over' and ordering Vance to focus domestically suggests US military pressure easing, reducing near-term catalyst for regime change, though this may already be partially priced at 2.3%.","watch":"Whether Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei makes a public appearance or statement in the next 7 days confirming his hold on power."}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?","yes":0.946,"vol24":376801,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15"},{"slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","yes":0.075,"vol24":256996,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027"},{"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191","title":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","yes":0.075,"vol24":183633,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191"},{"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?","yes":0.855,"vol24":152746,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22"},{"slug":"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-8-20261108","title":"US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?","yes":0.135,"vol24":113772,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-8-20261108"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-03","start":107.03,"now_date":"2026-11-03","now":107.03,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":12.275,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market iran-leadership-change-by-november-30","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-11-30"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:36:36.564Z"}