{"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31-415","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-12-31","score":1.793,"forecast":0.7155,"crowd":0.645,"live_quote":0.645,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31-415","call":null,"position":{"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31-415","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?","category":"energy-geopolitics","side":"YES","opened_at":"2026-11-12T23:15:24.507Z","deadline":"2026-12-31","crowd_at_entry":0.645,"forecast_at_entry":0.7155,"forecast_now":0.7155,"entry":0.645,"mark":0.645,"marked_live":true,"mark_source":"live 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on domestic issues","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/12/trump-jd-vance-iran-war","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E3","title":"Rubio Says ‘Major Combat Operations’ in Iran War Are No Longer Needed","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/us/politics/rubio-iran-war.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E4","title":"No Good Choices on Iran","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/world/iran-trump-war-hegseth-impeach.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E5","title":"Lewis Hamilton says ‘Israel’s genocide in Gaza is appalling’ after Rafah visit","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/nov/12/lewis-hamilton-gaza-visit-rafah-israel","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E6","title":"Son of Iran's shah receives 'Freedom Prize' in Frankfurt","url":"https://www.dw.com/en/son-of-iran-s-shah-receives-freedom-prize-in-frankfurt/a-79885661?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0.5,"cites":["E1","E2","E3"],"mechanism":"Official US statements declaring the war 'effectively over' and no deal needed reduce the perceived likelihood of renewed major hostilities before year-end, increasing ceasefire persistence odds beyond the crowd's 64.5%.","watch":"Any Israeli or Iranian official statement or military mobilization contradicting the 'effectively over' narrative within the next week."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":0.8,"cites":["E1","E2","E3"],"mechanism":"Multiple senior US officials (Trump, Vance, Rubio) explicitly declaring the Iran war 'effectively over' and redirecting attention domestically suggests the ceasefire is being treated as durable by the administration that would be needed to sustain or escalate it, but this may already be priced in gi","watch":"Any Iranian official statement accepting or rejecting the ceasefire framework, or Israeli military movements near Iranian borders."}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","yes":0.075,"vol24":256996,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027"},{"slug":"will-gadi-eizenkot-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel","title":"Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","yes":0.64,"vol24":236449,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-gadi-eizenkot-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel"},{"slug":"iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568-685-996-469-827","title":"Iran leadership change by December 31?","yes":0.085,"vol24":202306,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568-685-996-469-827"},{"slug":"will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel","title":"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","yes":0.203,"vol24":190489,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel"},{"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191","title":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","yes":0.075,"vol24":183633,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-03","start":107.03,"now_date":"2026-11-03","now":107.03,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":12.275,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31-415","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that 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