{"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-18","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 18?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-11-18","score":1.386,"forecast":0.956,"crowd":0.956,"live_quote":0.9725,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-18","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":209,"at":"2026-11-14T05:15:24.729Z","crowd":0.956,"forecast":0.956,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"3c367b5bb8e2667e1011eb13023cdbe7b1bdf4e1fcc92e27297a855f34606e2e","prev_hash":"a97f1538b8427a869fc64013b244b918c4113a4e4e17719b0ee2bccd0f08f2dc","tokens":868}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"Netanyahu and Eisenkot clash over whether Israel should strike Iran again","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxNQUVvaDZVNXJCbzhPUVZzQjlSZWJZNExjV19DS1BhMWJ6ZmY2VWVzQlZmazdCcnFkR0lxV3Q2WFVRZjhxTGJfN2RaTnlvSG9PZ3lPR0Q1UHJxbV9oVUtZelIyRmdDVXpWYU00WUNSUGNTaldzYkFuUzV2VUF3c1NaQTdubGxRdkVkdUdkZ0N4QW1yai1Yd0E?oc=5","source":"demand","date":"2026-11-13"},{"id":"E2","title":"Iran war live: Fighting grips Yemen as Qatar, Turkiye sign defence deal","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/11/14/iran-war-live-fighting-grips-yemen-as-qatar-turkiye-sign-defence-deal?traffic_source=rss","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-14"},{"id":"E3","title":"Iran Braces for a Budget Without Oil Revenue","url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iran-Braces-for-a-Budget-Without-Oil-Revenue.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-13"},{"id":"E4","title":"Eisenkot accuses Netanyahu of ‘racist’ campaign against Israel’s Arab minority","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/nov/13/eisenkot-accuses-netanyahu-of-racist-campaign-against-israels-arab-minority","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-13"},{"id":"E5","title":"Iran Shipping Update – November 13, 2026","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxPVzdtMWFEVEdhWjNYYW92LUpCdXZKM0dHWkhsU05OeXQ1Mll6U3VVTlhCZ3daRWZyUkdudnZMQnI0aEJMU1dDVFNtaHIwbF8zNF8xUW11d3VzdnRrWjNyWk16blFLVzZOV3Q3emtKUllob2JyX3ZReVN3SmtnZG56Sjl1ZzVJVE9BQWVyMnNOT3U?oc=5","source":"demand","date":"2026-11-13"},{"id":"E6","title":"‘Colossal mistake’: Gov. Newsom tells Iranian filmmaker about Iran war","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxQZXBmNGczQUpack1QdXNodGlHZWJzeUNsZ2xCS2dYMUtuSlhPUGxDM1RRM1ZvRVhlTDVNWHpiUTEtbjU2c2RzRVR5am1XRElJdkJTcVJoY2xyNUc1emJKU0drWTlpakx5cDdkY0VKd2VSWmtaSFNrUDhkdmN4dDFRcGRGSnQ?oc=5","source":"demand","date":"2026-11-13"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"Headlines show ongoing political friction and regional spillover but no direct evidence of ceasefire breach or extension, so the crowd's high probability remains well-calibrated.","watch":"Any official statement from Israel or Iran on ceasefire status by November 18."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"None of the headlines provide direct information about the Israel-Iran ceasefire status; E1 mentions internal Israeli disagreement about striking Iran again but doesn't indicate an actual strike or ceasefire breakdown, while E2's 'Iran war live' refers to Yemen fighting and a Qatar-Turkey defense de","watch":"Israeli military strike on Iranian territory or official Iranian announcement of ceasefire termination"}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"will-gadi-eizenkot-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel","title":"Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","yes":0.64,"vol24":236449,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-gadi-eizenkot-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel"},{"slug":"will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel","title":"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","yes":0.203,"vol24":190489,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel"},{"slug":"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-8-20261108","title":"US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?","yes":0.255,"vol24":88301,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-8-20261108"},{"slug":"will-avigdor-lieberman-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel","title":"Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","yes":0.07,"vol24":72591,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-avigdor-lieberman-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel"},{"slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","yes":0.075,"vol24":57327,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-11","start":92.14,"now_date":"2026-11-11","now":92.14,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":11.964,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-18","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-11-18"},"generated_at":"2026-11-14T16:49:34.254Z"}