{"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-11-22","score":1.594,"forecast":0.855,"crowd":0.855,"live_quote":0.855,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":63,"at":"2026-11-13T00:15:24.316Z","crowd":0.855,"forecast":0.855,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"e08efd5e21fc8a995961848c8ea523a58ef3e4d5be39ac7eff7b6f1fb361d528","prev_hash":"19d738035f7a6e89dcaa57604262845489229021515261b7d060030fd86e8449","tokens":917}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"Oil prices fall to lowest since August as Trump says Iran war is ‘effectively over’","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/nov/10/oil-prices-fall-donald-trump-iran-war-ftse-100-markets","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E2","title":"Trump says no deal needed on Iran war and orders Vance to focus on domestic issues","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/12/trump-jd-vance-iran-war","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E3","title":"Rubio Says ‘Major Combat Operations’ in Iran War Are No Longer Needed","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/us/politics/rubio-iran-war.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E4","title":"No Good Choices on Iran","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/world/iran-trump-war-hegseth-impeach.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E5","title":"Lewis Hamilton says ‘Israel’s genocide in Gaza is appalling’ after Rafah visit","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/nov/12/lewis-hamilton-gaza-visit-rafah-israel","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E6","title":"Son of Iran's shah receives 'Freedom Prize' in Frankfurt","url":"https://www.dw.com/en/son-of-iran-s-shah-receives-freedom-prize-in-frankfurt/a-79885661?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"All headlines are from before the question's start date and largely reflect already-known war de-escalation, with no new post-2026-11-13 information about the specific ceasefire holding through November 22.","watch":"Any report of renewed Israeli or Iranian military strikes between now and November 22."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":0.8,"cites":["E1","E2","E3"],"mechanism":"Multiple senior US officials (Trump, Rubio, Vance) declaring the Iran war 'effectively over' and shifting focus away from military operations suggests the ceasefire is stable and unlikely to break before Nov 22, information that may not be fully priced given the crowd's 85.5% already implies some re","watch":"Any Iranian or Israeli military strike or drone attack reported in the next 7 days that would contradict the 'effectively over' framing."}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","yes":0.075,"vol24":256996,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027"},{"slug":"will-gadi-eizenkot-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel","title":"Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","yes":0.64,"vol24":236449,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-gadi-eizenkot-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel"},{"slug":"iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568-685-996-469-827","title":"Iran leadership change by December 31?","yes":0.085,"vol24":202306,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568-685-996-469-827"},{"slug":"will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel","title":"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","yes":0.203,"vol24":190489,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel"},{"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191","title":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","yes":0.075,"vol24":183633,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-03","start":107.03,"now_date":"2026-11-03","now":107.03,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":12.275,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-11-22"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:36:34.460Z"}