{"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-30","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-11-30","score":1.684,"forecast":0.77,"crowd":0.77,"live_quote":0.785,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-30","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":20,"at":"2026-11-12T15:15:24.372Z","crowd":0.745,"forecast":0.745,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"6ac585d522e837a7fb33cf7280e503dff39031181224d5221381f819bc724e1a","prev_hash":"cf352aeff6fa2bb1e3603195cc8ab27ae6581f70e9dad55aab847fc57548dda4","tokens":908},{"id":24,"at":"2026-11-12T16:15:24.603Z","crowd":0.82,"forecast":0.82,"trigger":"3 new signals","hash":"bc46b9d7e551d7245666ff9b74880b92423f2a2f22ba04dd853d10ba5058c004","prev_hash":"742c4a5c7e38d2461db9fd63860c51f92767ce33af79a7979fab61e3610c4d21","tokens":875},{"id":30,"at":"2026-11-12T17:15:24.263Z","crowd":0.825,"forecast":0.825,"trigger":"3 new signals","hash":"b5604e702423c49b5ef65fb10f829b04e1eab48131e285138be04fdf469e5e31","prev_hash":"0e7025f5ecf46634bb10165a1894111f2d3a2291c83126fe97edf9f589923229","tokens":884},{"id":35,"at":"2026-11-12T18:15:24.318Z","crowd":0.79,"forecast":0.79,"trigger":"2 new signals","hash":"bc821dd598cbf48dc9497c5bc774b6fb1c7227ff0f431d793a5fc373fc6c0646","prev_hash":"f43f720f6ad3daa864c1c7c686efbde3f281e7c28fe7cabc793a758c2a303e31","tokens":896},{"id":39,"at":"2026-11-12T19:15:24.233Z","crowd":0.77,"forecast":0.77,"trigger":"4 new signals","hash":"03f806532642181d9442c515fc9264c8c82a27056186745caa077e2ff3f13d84","prev_hash":"6acf09bca2405da29e532c2a4d253fe24adce994a5b7475ae288fad4a45ceb9f","tokens":911},{"id":44,"at":"2026-11-12T20:15:24.991Z","crowd":0.775,"forecast":0.775,"trigger":"3 new signals","hash":"89ddbaa8fb69034adc5f7af4f29e93817b3bfbabc2993007b5acdcdae1ca31c1","prev_hash":"07bfce7163f24fa52a9dde419ce0e54c9fbb7bd82108ac96d1f724b858b59616","tokens":870},{"id":54,"at":"2026-11-12T22:15:24.504Z","crowd":0.77,"forecast":0.77,"trigger":"1 new signal","hash":"1c07092112f7db5c4c3f273481716839fb964f0ca654639d8980c14a7f5b97db","prev_hash":"9533dfb552e903fa7f5cab1a2522d1cabf7aa1478e0e64dc22d27ea782b6426d","tokens":911}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"Oil prices fall to lowest since August as Trump says Iran war is ‘effectively over’","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/nov/10/oil-prices-fall-donald-trump-iran-war-ftse-100-markets","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E2","title":"Trump says no deal needed on Iran war and orders Vance to focus on domestic issues","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/12/trump-jd-vance-iran-war","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E3","title":"Rubio Says ‘Major Combat Operations’ in Iran War Are No Longer Needed","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/us/politics/rubio-iran-war.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E4","title":"No Good Choices on Iran","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/world/iran-trump-war-hegseth-impeach.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E5","title":"Lewis Hamilton says ‘Israel’s genocide in Gaza is appalling’ after Rafah visit","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/nov/12/lewis-hamilton-gaza-visit-rafah-israel","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E6","title":"Son of Iran's shah receives 'Freedom Prize' in Frankfurt","url":"https://www.dw.com/en/son-of-iran-s-shah-receives-freedom-prize-in-frankfurt/a-79885661?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headlines largely confirm the war is winding down but do not specify a formal ceasefire lasting through November 30, and the crowd already prices 77% probability, so no new decisive information.","watch":"Any official joint statement from Israel and Iran extending or formalizing the ceasefire beyond November 30."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":0.5,"cites":["E1","E2","E3"],"mechanism":"Multiple senior US officials (Trump, Vance, Rubio) explicitly declaring the Iran war 'effectively over' and shifting focus away suggests the ceasefire is stable and likely to hold, but this may already be priced in at 77%; the unanimity and specificity of 'no deal needed' slightly increases confiden","watch":"Any Iranian official statement rejecting the ceasefire or new missile/drone attacks from either side reported by November 19"}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","yes":0.075,"vol24":256996,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027"},{"slug":"will-gadi-eizenkot-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel","title":"Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","yes":0.64,"vol24":236449,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-gadi-eizenkot-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel"},{"slug":"iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568-685-996-469-827","title":"Iran leadership change by December 31?","yes":0.085,"vol24":202306,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568-685-996-469-827"},{"slug":"will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel","title":"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","yes":0.203,"vol24":190489,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel"},{"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191","title":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","yes":0.075,"vol24":183633,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-03","start":107.03,"now_date":"2026-11-03","now":107.03,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":12.275,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-30","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-11-30"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:36:34.760Z"}