{"slug":"next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-by-november-30-2026","title":"Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-11-30","score":1.483,"forecast":0.095,"crowd":0.095,"live_quote":0.095,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-by-november-30-2026","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":22,"at":"2026-11-12T15:15:24.372Z","crowd":0.16,"forecast":0.16,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"043b21015181179adb83c425fadb56e4b1ae8e4f129bdf01f8ca834cf4259a7d","prev_hash":"e71b3d3dcf6259c422686b562af5a3331446f8c9004e3f2f6f24a1ee692ccc62","tokens":614},{"id":42,"at":"2026-11-12T19:15:24.233Z","crowd":0.095,"forecast":0.095,"trigger":"crowd moved -6 pts","hash":"0419f55ada5b81e9346a65bd7eee67837d20f806cca78f19a588a6bcf465fd5d","prev_hash":"a04cf13f79fd9d2de4514c456ddbf2575649885b1d66cf26e319dced72554012","tokens":619}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"UAE's Gargash warns of prolonged regional uncertainty, says US-Iran settlement appears difficult","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxQMlI2UXNzNl84Z1ByMV9Ybm5YNjMtZkdPcDhsZ2plZk9udWViZDZ4eTRVQVNXN2x6U2hENlkxbXJ2SXVvVU0tVWFkZGlSLXBDcnBZM1pzLVBNMzA5bjdZOHlFSXd6ZzhsWWZvV3JWWXlTME1tMnJ5Q0RoWHk1ZmJzbzk5cjZFaDI4NXpTOGRaVDBTNGNxcnRZYjF0X2NzY3EwaEJZcVhMaHRRMXREdXBkeXh6OGRCdU9aaWRJdS1zNzBQSUJCZEE?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-09"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headline is vague, dated before the question's resolution window, and offers no specific new information about a scheduled meeting, so it does not plausibly move the market's already low probability.","watch":"Any official announcement of a meeting date or direct US-Iran negotiation channel opening before Nov 30."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headline reports a third-party diplomat's pessimistic assessment about a general 'settlement,' which is vague, already priced into low baseline odds, and does not specifically address whether a senior diplomatic meeting will occur by November 30.","watch":"Announcement or leak of scheduled talks between US Secretary of State and Iranian Foreign Minister or equivalent-level officials"}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191","title":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","yes":0.075,"vol24":183633,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-03","start":107.03,"now_date":"2026-11-03","now":107.03,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":12.275,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-by-november-30-2026","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-11-30"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:36:38.657Z"}