{"slug":"pete-hegseth-impeached-by-december-31-2026-20260628214100529","title":"Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?","category":"officials-rules","moves":"The officials and rules that set contracts, tariffs and budgets.","deadline":"2026-12-31","score":1.464,"forecast":0.699,"crowd":0.699,"live_quote":0.0315,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/pete-hegseth-impeached-by-december-31-2026-20260628214100529","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":37,"at":"2026-11-12T18:15:24.318Z","crowd":0.699,"forecast":0.699,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"cad06898b1dea85280622eea498c635c759d40eb1dec7045fc42e897a6fbfe96","prev_hash":"37bc4bde91369e6e5063520dbb324bc34d50b17d932522140bfa713e3bb1c0b6","tokens":875}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth reprimanded at war memorial","url":"https://www.france24.com/en/us-defense-secretary-pete-hegseth-reprimanded-at-war-memorial","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E2","title":"Pete Hegseth impeachment effort blocked by House Republicans","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxPQUNXMkxGenZWcWlHclR5OG1zTlBOY1FCaktDemppTUVxd1R6aVdEU0t1Yld1U1h2empESzVJWXJxa0VYREVJenNGbVg4cmdKY3RkYkdwbmdsZGJiWmF2Y280dDYzbjJkcnRWbEp5MjJ3YzlUUEcySW5PcEYydzI4OHJoNWhKSHZvTlhMd3NRMll3VEwxTkpJOWhyUnFQV3dneTVV?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-10"},{"id":"E3","title":"House GOP shelves Pete Hegseth impeachment articles","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxPWEFRdkRoME9LSVQzNHJPTnFOZWdieVIxSnh5Z3EtekhST3ppNk1scmtpOWNaR3c0OFphTVBYeTFfX09Yb0tRaEdwbXU3Xy1nYjl3Qi11UUJmM3NmcHNjX1hkdDJTSW9YQktzb0NhQ1RtS3prOE91dEcxc2I2Z0xsR0prVdIBiAFBVV95cUxORDNNNmhReHBMbm9YSG5saU1PaGFLclQ0Z3dYNFVqQWRZLTRELTdKSmZQRkFTdmtQVWo2M0FGc25BSHQwX1NkR3ExUTQ3Y3gzZnBLYWstNm14SUh3bWZKQnlkSGpSQjJfSDh6N0E1dzNjVVE4R0d5ZUhtcUR0czJhQmdWTFJ1UFRy?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-10"},{"id":"E4","title":"Secretary of War Pete Hegseth Holds a Press Briefing","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxPQTk2NTRiQy1oTXV0RjRjazVkUWtDcW5QUFhDRHBPUEF4VGRzWEtUSjBWRUlDYW5lMC0wSGRNUkF2M19vWjIyT0ppZWdnRTlYaXN2NW5lU3luU1ZRc3JLMk9PNmptM2NhUGxjUWdDV1JNYzVuNnZwMEFPUVljV00za0RtNzlBcGk2MFRLWkFEMTJjdVJPNFR4SGdhWnBId1A4eVZPSERyR0pBeDdfclZuazgzcGdJUDJY?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-10"},{"id":"E5","title":"Thomas Massie files articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNVEVycllJNF9meEdQNkVKeTZLWjRmX2t1U3luV3otVkhWbkJPYVNQYl93X3FEUGdrYl9vaXBDT2JBWENBRFlwTlczOHdpbURZMk1fTjc1XzlTcTNWZ1RsZkRqMVhkTnZGMzFWanpYS1NvY2Y0RWFBRG1CeHUzMG56M05DMFZBbGlqZDZJ?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-09"},{"id":"E6","title":"Trump says he'd 'stand by' Hegseth even if he's impeached","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxQT2dkU3hyS2J5eGQwNlRPVWV4c1NBd2xSNmlmcUo4bVgxRVNTUnFQZW9mVDlOSUVDRWoyanRSUUExYlNEOWNLZm05OVo4OWR2QTdWWXcxbmd0c2FWQkgtT193UVJQZmxMRzlpRGJKRUFkbk5CRUJ1MjcwSE9QUjY2cFd4OUZzYlZqSW5LVjdsN0NfdXY5QlE?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-09"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headlines largely reflect already-known impeachment attempts and Republican blocking, which the 69.9% crowd price already incorporates; the reprimand is vague and not clearly impeachment-related.","watch":"Whether the House schedules a floor vote on impeachment articles before December 31."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":-1.2,"cites":["E2","E3","E6"],"mechanism":"House Republicans have already blocked/shelved impeachment articles and Trump explicitly committed to standing by Hegseth even if impeached, making successful impeachment by year-end highly unlikely given GOP House control.","watch":"Whether any House Republican leadership signals renewed willingness to advance Hegseth impeachment articles before December recess."}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31","title":"Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?","yes":0.155,"vol24":70775,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31"},{"slug":"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-october-31-20261001003401433","title":"Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?","yes":0.051,"vol24":37088,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-october-31-20261001003401433"},{"slug":"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-21","title":"Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21?","yes":0.021,"vol24":30518,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-21"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DGS10","name":"10-year Treasury yield","unit":"%","start_date":"2026-11-10","start":4.98,"now_date":"2026-11-10","now":4.98,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":0.781,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"points"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market pete-hegseth-impeached-by-december-31-2026-20260628214100529","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; 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