{"slug":"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31","title":"Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?","category":"officials-rules","moves":"The officials and rules that set contracts, tariffs and budgets.","deadline":"2026-12-31","score":1.562,"forecast":0.425,"crowd":0.425,"live_quote":0.155,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":10,"at":"2026-11-12T12:15:24.424Z","crowd":0.425,"forecast":0.425,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"82a7b225f9e0fc10c31ceaa531f8eb63fdf0819c31de1788b0c70837a07c33a2","prev_hash":"0c9828e947daf5a806e65cdd823b8cdd891835f02a619344cbef93ddf9a27871","tokens":597}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"From Attack Surface to Defense Architecture: Compositional Security for Agentic Coding Harnesses","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.13960v1","source":"arxiv","date":"2026-11-12"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headline is about technical AI security research, unrelated to Pete Hegseth's tenure as Secretary of Defense, and provides no information relevant to his potential removal by December 31.","watch":"Any news about Hegseth's resignation, Senate confirmation of a successor, or White House statements on his status."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headline is a technical arxiv paper about software security architecture with no apparent connection to Pete Hegseth's tenure as Secretary of Defense.","watch":"Any headline mentioning Hegseth, Trump, or Pentagon leadership changes in political news sources."}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"will-dana-white-be-the-next-white-house-press-secretary","title":"Will Dana F. White Jr be the next White House Press Secretary?","yes":0.021,"vol24":82858,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-dana-white-be-the-next-white-house-press-secretary"},{"slug":"pete-hegseth-impeached-by-december-31-2026-20260628214100529","title":"Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?","yes":0.032,"vol24":24842,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/pete-hegseth-impeached-by-december-31-2026-20260628214100529"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DGS10","name":"10-year Treasury yield","unit":"%","start_date":"2026-11-10","start":4.98,"now_date":"2026-11-10","now":4.98,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":0.781,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"points"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-12-31"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:36:40.781Z"}