{"slug":"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-21","title":"Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21?","category":"officials-rules","moves":"The officials and rules that set contracts, tariffs and budgets.","deadline":"2026-11-21","score":1.026,"forecast":0.0215,"crowd":0.0215,"live_quote":0.02,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-21","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":178,"at":"2026-11-13T21:15:24.449Z","crowd":0.0215,"forecast":0.0215,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"c32bb9580324ffcb2a668b13391620ddf21b1cfee3f472425bb7b74a35626d57","prev_hash":"ea8f86597b93e70696506e5957479152dee87561e9cc990493438f6f4407c7b1","tokens":876}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"Thomas Massie files articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNVEVycllJNF9meEdQNkVKeTZLWjRmX2t1U3luV3otVkhWbkJPYVNQYl93X3FEUGdrYl9vaXBDT2JBWENBRFlwTlczOHdpbURZMk1fTjc1XzlTcTNWZ1RsZkRqMVhkTnZGMzFWanpYS1NvY2Y0RWFBRG1CeHUzMG56M05DMFZBbGlqZDZJ?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-09"},{"id":"E2","title":"US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth reprimanded at war memorial","url":"https://www.france24.com/en/us-defense-secretary-pete-hegseth-reprimanded-at-war-memorial","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E3","title":"Secretary of War Pete Hegseth Holds a Press Briefing","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxPQTk2NTRiQy1oTXV0RjRjazVkUWtDcW5QUFhDRHBPUEF4VGRzWEtUSjBWRUlDYW5lMC0wSGRNUkF2M19vWjIyT0ppZWdnRTlYaXN2NW5lU3luU1ZRc3JLMk9PNmptM2NhUGxjUWdDV1JNYzVuNnZwMEFPUVljV00za0RtNzlBcGk2MFRLWkFEMTJjdVJPNFR4SGdhWnBId1A4eVZPSERyR0pBeDdfclZuazgzcGdJUDJY?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-10"},{"id":"E4","title":"US House blocks bid to impeach Defense Secretary Hegseth","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxObVFtR2hnZ2luVDdXU010VVB4UVpubVBIbUtJc0ZkQVkzLUkzaWxMRDJKaVVoTVNUbzRyRGQ4ZFh1dUZIUFhRVDRTVVNyZ3FWQkRIMm5UTVJOY2J0MDJ4bEFZNkh2MjdUZzRnRkVYbXBKSktfNElhWU42SEVRMktOd0JHYTQyU2N4ZUF2eWZicDRpVHBCTHRYUWFYOVRMT3lrVWNuQldMQkV0MVVGYXc?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-10"},{"id":"E5","title":"Pete Hegseth honors soldier who scolded him at Arlington cemetery","url":"https://www.dw.com/en/pete-hegseth-honors-soldier-who-scolded-him-at-arlington-cemetery/a-79935075?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E6","title":"Pete Hegseth impeachment effort blocked by House Republicans","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxPQUNXMkxGenZWcWlHclR5OG1zTlBOY1FCaktDemppTUVxd1R6aVdEU0t1Yld1U1h2empESzVJWXJxa0VYREVJenNGbVg4cmdKY3RkYkdwbmdsZGJiWmF2Y280dDYzbjJkcnRWbEp5MjJ3YzlUUEcySW5PcEYydzI4OHJoNWhKSHZvTlhMd3NRMll3VEwxTkpJOWhyUnFQV3dneTVV?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-10"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headlines are consistent with the crowd's low probability: impeachment was blocked and the reprimand/honor stories are ambiguous, providing no clear new information that Hegseth will be out by Nov 21.","watch":"Any announcement of resignation or removal by the White House before Nov 21."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The impeachment effort was already blocked by House Republicans (E4, E6), and the Arlington incidents (E2, E5) appear to be minor protocol matters rather than resignation-triggering events; nothing here suggests new information markets haven't priced.","watch":"Whether any Republican senators or House leadership publicly call for Hegseth's resignation before November 21."}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"will-dana-white-be-the-next-white-house-press-secretary","title":"Will Dana F. White Jr be the next White House Press Secretary?","yes":0.021,"vol24":82858,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-dana-white-be-the-next-white-house-press-secretary"},{"slug":"pete-hegseth-impeached-by-december-31-2026-20260628214100529","title":"Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?","yes":0.024,"vol24":8768,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/pete-hegseth-impeached-by-december-31-2026-20260628214100529"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DGS10","name":"10-year Treasury yield","unit":"%","start_date":"2026-11-12","start":5.1,"now_date":"2026-11-12","now":5.1,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":0.942,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"points"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-21","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-11-21"},"generated_at":"2026-11-14T16:49:36.459Z"}