{"slug":"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-october-31-20261001003401433","title":"Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?","category":"officials-rules","moves":"The officials and rules that set contracts, tariffs and budgets.","deadline":"2026-11-30","score":1.462,"forecast":0.285,"crowd":0.285,"live_quote":0.051,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-october-31-20261001003401433","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":6,"at":"2026-11-12T11:15:24.443Z","crowd":0.285,"forecast":0.285,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"ba35dc786a29c2c24d3945ea7f35e907098db099b772593ac66d72815209d2a1","prev_hash":"7345e51a6bf7d8e37e7cb1ef080c75c0672ea5eacfb688679a8d297dcaf0aa98","tokens":587},{"id":16,"at":"2026-11-12T14:15:24.510Z","crowd":0.285,"forecast":0.285,"trigger":"6 new signals","hash":"0a5cf875c72670b92b5669b0106ea6b3923f5f0d85ade17bf516f2f43fbd4ee7","prev_hash":"2d0fc86665d9fba0a11edb7ba6ac524d272f2c79fd65289e2bf6495edda2c9c2","tokens":872}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"Thomas Massie files articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxNVEVycllJNF9meEdQNkVKeTZLWjRmX2t1U3luV3otVkhWbkJPYVNQYl93X3FEUGdrYl9vaXBDT2JBWENBRFlwTlczOHdpbURZMk1fTjc1XzlTcTNWZ1RsZkRqMVhkTnZGMzFWanpYS1NvY2Y0RWFBRG1CeHUzMG56M05DMFZBbGlqZDZJ?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-09"},{"id":"E2","title":"Secretary of War Pete Hegseth Holds a Press Briefing","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxPQTk2NTRiQy1oTXV0RjRjazVkUWtDcW5QUFhDRHBPUEF4VGRzWEtUSjBWRUlDYW5lMC0wSGRNUkF2M19vWjIyT0ppZWdnRTlYaXN2NW5lU3luU1ZRc3JLMk9PNmptM2NhUGxjUWdDV1JNYzVuNnZwMEFPUVljV00za0RtNzlBcGk2MFRLWkFEMTJjdVJPNFR4SGdhWnBId1A4eVZPSERyR0pBeDdfclZuazgzcGdJUDJY?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-10"},{"id":"E3","title":"US House blocks bid to impeach Defense Secretary Hegseth","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxObVFtR2hnZ2luVDdXU010VVB4UVpubVBIbUtJc0ZkQVkzLUkzaWxMRDJKaVVoTVNUbzRyRGQ4ZFh1dUZIUFhRVDRTVVNyZ3FWQkRIMm5UTVJOY2J0MDJ4bEFZNkh2MjdUZzRnRkVYbXBKSktfNElhWU42SEVRMktOd0JHYTQyU2N4ZUF2eWZicDRpVHBCTHRYUWFYOVRMT3lrVWNuQldMQkV0MVVGYXc?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-10"},{"id":"E4","title":"Pete Hegseth impeachment effort blocked by House Republicans","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxPQUNXMkxGenZWcWlHclR5OG1zTlBOY1FCaktDemppTUVxd1R6aVdEU0t1Yld1U1h2empESzVJWXJxa0VYREVJenNGbVg4cmdKY3RkYkdwbmdsZGJiWmF2Y280dDYzbjJkcnRWbEp5MjJ3YzlUUEcySW5PcEYydzI4OHJoNWhKSHZvTlhMd3NRMll3VEwxTkpJOWhyUnFQV3dneTVV?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-10"},{"id":"E5","title":"House GOP shelves Pete Hegseth impeachment articles","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxPWEFRdkRoME9LSVQzNHJPTnFOZWdieVIxSnh5Z3EtekhST3ppNk1scmtpOWNaR3c0OFphTVBYeTFfX09Yb0tRaEdwbXU3Xy1nYjl3Qi11UUJmM3NmcHNjX1hkdDJTSW9YQktzb0NhQ1RtS3prOE91dEcxc2I2Z0xsR0prVdIBiAFBVV95cUxORDNNNmhReHBMbm9YSG5saU1PaGFLclQ0Z3dYNFVqQWRZLTRELTdKSmZQRkFTdmtQVWo2M0FGc25BSHQwX1NkR3ExUTQ3Y3gzZnBLYWstNm14SUh3bWZKQnlkSGpSQjJfSDh6N0E1dzNjVVE4R0d5ZUhtcUR0czJhQmdWTFJ1UFRy?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-10"},{"id":"E6","title":"Republican Thomas Massie moves to force vote to impeach Pete Hegseth","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxPS0ZDZHczOGZ5WVRzd0U3WDhILUVLRktPcTBKaXBhY09pNDVRMW9kdTdreDMxSlJlbVdnVzVHVG5PbVB3aV82a1Y4bFlreGhaQUE5bEJUWjZETENJQWJzQVlpN2pQME5YZlhQOGpiWkJBNUhRSkRTUV9XeThWZERaRzFsNHYwZjF5VVg4RzJRQQ?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-09"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headlines show an impeachment attempt that was quickly blocked by House Republicans, indicating political noise rather than a credible threat to Hegseth's tenure, and the crowd price already reflects this low probability.","watch":"Any news of a second impeachment attempt or a White House statement of resignation before Nov 30."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":-0.5,"cites":["E3","E4","E5"],"mechanism":"House Republicans blocking impeachment removes the most plausible near-term removal mechanism, making Hegseth's survival through November 30 more likely than the 28.5% price suggests.","watch":"Whether any new impeachment effort gains traction or Trump publicly signals loss of confidence in Hegseth"}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"will-dana-white-be-the-next-white-house-press-secretary","title":"Will Dana F. 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