{"slug":"russia-x-ukraine-energy-ceasefire-agreement-by-november-15-2026","title":"Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by November 15, 2026?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-11-15","score":1.308,"forecast":0.017,"crowd":0.017,"live_quote":0.0075,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/russia-x-ukraine-energy-ceasefire-agreement-by-november-15-2026","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":102,"at":"2026-11-13T07:15:24.192Z","crowd":0.017,"forecast":0.017,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"2ba8f02040209e04f1e99eeee416f0bcb2e8c246dc4a2e0837397e0d42eb8525","prev_hash":"1f25cfdd82bc6e8b57988f4406fd2eefc6ea453c90dd7535bb1bd3405b8c5173","tokens":884}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"US, Russia, Ukraine wrap up talks with prisoner exchange agreement","url":"https://www.dw.com/en/us-russia-ukraine-wrap-up-talks-with-prisoner-exchange-agreement/live-79906232?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E2","title":"Zelensky welcomes US bringing Europe into Russia-Ukraine peace talks","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckn80j9jv3jxo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-13"},{"id":"E3","title":"Live: Zelensky and Kushner confirm that Europe will join next round of Russia-Ukraine talks","url":"https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20261113-live-zelensky-and-kushner-confirm-that-europe-will-join-next-round-of-russia-ukraine-talks","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-13"},{"id":"E4","title":"EU leaders tussle over who to send to Ukraine, Russia peace talks","url":"https://www.dw.com/en/eu-leaders-tussle-over-who-to-send-to-ukraine-russia-peace-talks/a-79935468?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-13"},{"id":"E5","title":"Across Africa: Tunisians drawn into Russia's war with Ukraine","url":"https://www.france24.com/en/across-africa-tunisians-drawn-into-russia-s-war-with-ukraine","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E6","title":"Ukraine: Russia hits Kyiv with airstrikes ahead of trilateral talks","url":"https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-russia-hits-kyiv-with-airstrikes-ahead-of-trilateral-talks/a-79883851?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headlines show ongoing talks and prisoner exchange but no energy ceasefire agreement, and the airstrikes indicate continued hostilities, so no new information materially changes the low baseline probability.","watch":"Any official joint statement from Russia and Ukraine specifically announcing an energy infrastructure ceasefire before November 15."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":0.5,"cites":["E1","E2","E3"],"mechanism":"Prisoner exchange and explicit expansion to include Europe in next round of talks suggests momentum toward broader agreements, but no direct mention of energy infrastructure ceasefire specifically.","watch":"Announcement of specific energy infrastructure protection terms in upcoming November talks with European participation."}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"putin-out-before-2027-346","title":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","yes":0.015,"vol24":128617,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/putin-out-before-2027-346"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-11","start":92.14,"now_date":"2026-11-11","now":92.14,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":11.964,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market russia-x-ukraine-energy-ceasefire-agreement-by-november-15-2026","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-11-15"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T16:01:34.578Z"}