{"slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-12-31","score":1.463,"forecast":0.065,"crowd":0.065,"live_quote":0.065,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":72,"at":"2026-11-13T01:15:24.909Z","crowd":0.065,"forecast":0.065,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"d3a9ed8d3d927f94767b30a602f60daaed0af3fc00515faae7dbc90934459a83","prev_hash":"9041d208ea646799b668cbc77a31b14905d9dbb98cd65995213e6612162421e0","tokens":922}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says 2 oil tankers exploded in Strait of Hormuz","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxPd0dVRHZuQnJxdGFrLW5KZ1lndzRNOXVOSm13aWZuZmQ2bVJRQ3ctMl94dVVfYWNWVUJPbWhydWozRXRKQmJvWGJhel8wZUlRRFd0Y2VpVWx4UHdTX1NFN3c2TFJIb2Q1WFRBcGVXeWJuMjNYVUU0ZXdjUE1SakRlbnhkbW9JYVZvQ25MXzlsdmIxS0pqbEY3TV81Y3pxSndRSmNPZXdFWlFLY2xYU24xSV9CYXc5dw?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E2","title":"Hormuz Strait will ‘never return’ to pre-war status, Iran’s Ghalibaf says","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxQWGxvd2hwTGtyaGlUa3hIS3BUSkdPYXJVNUd2Wnl1V0M1enhlSVdnUU9UN091S0JPLThfTTk3QVkwUmhPR212enhUWDUxRGdqZ0RtVXVJY3Ruc0podzdET0QtX0VCbGMwRzY5ZHMtTEQtMHNSaGtVQmVueGdCWTJ1SXFTVUlZRzVzZXdDUTZwcXo3cHdyTzlfS3gyTzMySDBmNlctcHNR0gGrAUFVX3lxTE9ETk94YXFQVXpLTFZnMUFLWDJEYWlLR2pDSkkyUTdtSFNKcXdfQUtHUkNTcnBNc05LYk4xR09nZ0ctUDVvakxYejhwT18xVURRUHA3TUdWLWpIOUVpTnFkQmRFWXhaaWpadTNOLVpxdTMzUUl6OVhuQ25sSmRUMXJfMmJiTEtHbFpMSzVaNXpTU1lRTlkwWmFyUHZQb2Q5TENUMUh1ejZVZS1jVQ?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-11"},{"id":"E3","title":"Bypass the Strait of Hormuz? Why That’s Not So Easy","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPSHhsUHMtRFR6c2FKbExXT2dhTTdxbzlyeTF1dUVucjdtemlRdnk2V1JIbHpuallkdS1fa3pJUWxmWm95YVZ0ZGZaQmlvdndJMmJuWENOYTJPU3hmaTZpUHZON3FZNG80RlFwb1EzNVVXQzZZTWNKQzEyTHhZYTR1Sk13NGFUTFE?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-11"},{"id":"E4","title":"Uncertainty Surrounds Possible Attack on Oman's Strait of Hormuz Lighthouse","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxNeDFPcnFqUXFHUzZVNl9BdUVRV1ByeUNtMDllNHpRUngwM0xHc3EtWnFwVllRdmFkSUVKWGE1U2pjS1UxMEdsS2FaNVlJMHlQZjR6eTVKRVFZeVFYSWRVRW1qbmdXSUtfMHhGRUhJVXVOMFFuYnYzU3dlZmhfNFJ3UENwQmRKelpNZE9FZ3dRT3FRUnhxYlhDOVZuRjhBVnB6SnN4ZHJPdzFFRktIa25Cc2U0SWw?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-10"},{"id":"E5","title":"Strait of Hormuz still a source of leverage for Iran despite US efforts to protect commercial shipping","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxNZlJwWkV5T3RGUUhGeG85bFRFLUNkbkw1NG5ka2NPQ1huMmpMLXgyaHJkTWxIYnNBMUd1bV9nSU5LWng2c2xqb0gzZ1RTLV9SaHlsRjY4akRxVGFPNHppekVBUkJySXB4MDVyQkFkQU05Q1gyR19GYjI4MXViMVF5UnZZbHJCdG9jdld4WHpB0gGOAUFVX3lxTE1uejRpYVFWS0s1dEpRaURualR2YWZuN0JrTkRHVEM3enE0ZXh5LWI0cFMyRzVFR0tTdktZOW1vMEVia2RxRWdNS1NuNUg4TEVrQ0xvRW9ESEdZOTl4c3A1YUMwYUxfcHVoNVRUbVZwQ0hZSE1UZU9tZzNOaTJGTTlpaFZzX3RadFRDVV9pR0E?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-10"},{"id":"E6","title":"Trump calls Strait of Hormuz blockade ‘history’s greatest’","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxNX1EwcGhxVzFLQ2xYSG83alZmVUVTZ2RLcmt3MWJnQ3ZJUGlaVlY5R3J5MXc5V2dDNXpiellVM2FUc0pxREhwN21YVThZcGtDNXlLWjJGY1YwQkxwRkRnM0ViaXh6LW5SN2Nic2FFSG4yYlN5Y1BtRFhDUEwtVDY0TzZBRTBNaVdfbFhZUHJyZ1rSAZYBQVVfeXFMTVFjZFhFSVFPbU10STk2TWFhRnIyRVdERllEWEt0eXpiMUdfLWpNUzllcXY3TVh0bnlPb3BIYnJXRThXZWgxcTJVd0JZMWIwX21CZmMwRldZQVB5Q3VNRXpBd25LQU05UHVmMW8xVkNTWGkyd0xlOWpVUDZtaXFiaW9SVzdCM2QtZEEyeVZBWXF3bGlrVFRB?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-09"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headlines are consistent with the already-priced ongoing tension and do not provide new information about a specific, verifiable return-to-normal by December 31, so the crowd's low probability remains justified.","watch":"Any official announcement of full resumption of normal shipping schedules through the Strait by mid-December."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":-1.5,"cites":["E1","E2","E6"],"mechanism":"E1 confirms active tanker attacks are ongoing, E2 signals Iranian intent to permanently disrupt status quo, and E6 shows Trump framing blockade as historic, suggesting escalation rather than resolution within 7 weeks.","watch":"Whether additional tanker attacks occur or US-Iran backchannel talks are reported by November 20."}],"related_markets":[],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-03","start":107.03,"now_date":"2026-11-03","now":107.03,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":12.275,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-12-31"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T02:04:48.203Z"}