{"slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-11-30","score":1.359,"forecast":0.0245,"crowd":0.0245,"live_quote":0.013,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":65,"at":"2026-11-13T00:15:24.316Z","crowd":0.0245,"forecast":0.0245,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"e74761f2bbed7ef2993993f2a2fe6ebd9d431798e9f1ffd686e41e6d8b42fb6b","prev_hash":"cb3d08705038c1bc47344dd7eceb22def7a0552fc11f7eb6cfcd3713401414a2","tokens":935}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says 2 oil tankers exploded in Strait of Hormuz","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitgFBVV95cUxPd0dVRHZuQnJxdGFrLW5KZ1lndzRNOXVOSm13aWZuZmQ2bVJRQ3ctMl94dVVfYWNWVUJPbWhydWozRXRKQmJvWGJhel8wZUlRRFd0Y2VpVWx4UHdTX1NFN3c2TFJIb2Q1WFRBcGVXeWJuMjNYVUU0ZXdjUE1SakRlbnhkbW9JYVZvQ25MXzlsdmIxS0pqbEY3TV81Y3pxSndRSmNPZXdFWlFLY2xYU24xSV9CYXc5dw?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E2","title":"Hormuz Strait will ‘never return’ to pre-war status, Iran’s Ghalibaf says","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxQWGxvd2hwTGtyaGlUa3hIS3BUSkdPYXJVNUd2Wnl1V0M1enhlSVdnUU9UN091S0JPLThfTTk3QVkwUmhPR212enhUWDUxRGdqZ0RtVXVJY3Ruc0podzdET0QtX0VCbGMwRzY5ZHMtTEQtMHNSaGtVQmVueGdCWTJ1SXFTVUlZRzVzZXdDUTZwcXo3cHdyTzlfS3gyTzMySDBmNlctcHNR0gGrAUFVX3lxTE9ETk94YXFQVXpLTFZnMUFLWDJEYWlLR2pDSkkyUTdtSFNKcXdfQUtHUkNTcnBNc05LYk4xR09nZ0ctUDVvakxYejhwT18xVURRUHA3TUdWLWpIOUVpTnFkQmRFWXhaaWpadTNOLVpxdTMzUUl6OVhuQ25sSmRUMXJfMmJiTEtHbFpMSzVaNXpTU1lRTlkwWmFyUHZQb2Q5TENUMUh1ejZVZS1jVQ?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-11"},{"id":"E3","title":"Bypass the Strait of Hormuz? Why That’s Not So Easy","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPSHhsUHMtRFR6c2FKbExXT2dhTTdxbzlyeTF1dUVucjdtemlRdnk2V1JIbHpuallkdS1fa3pJUWxmWm95YVZ0ZGZaQmlvdndJMmJuWENOYTJPU3hmaTZpUHZON3FZNG80RlFwb1EzNVVXQzZZTWNKQzEyTHhZYTR1Sk13NGFUTFE?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-11"},{"id":"E4","title":"Uncertainty Surrounds Possible Attack on Oman's Strait of Hormuz Lighthouse","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxNeDFPcnFqUXFHUzZVNl9BdUVRV1ByeUNtMDllNHpRUngwM0xHc3EtWnFwVllRdmFkSUVKWGE1U2pjS1UxMEdsS2FaNVlJMHlQZjR6eTVKRVFZeVFYSWRVRW1qbmdXSUtfMHhGRUhJVXVOMFFuYnYzU3dlZmhfNFJ3UENwQmRKelpNZE9FZ3dRT3FRUnhxYlhDOVZuRjhBVnB6SnN4ZHJPdzFFRktIa25Cc2U0SWw?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-10"},{"id":"E5","title":"Strait of Hormuz still a source of leverage for Iran despite US efforts to protect commercial shipping","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxNZlJwWkV5T3RGUUhGeG85bFRFLUNkbkw1NG5ka2NPQ1huMmpMLXgyaHJkTWxIYnNBMUd1bV9nSU5LWng2c2xqb0gzZ1RTLV9SaHlsRjY4akRxVGFPNHppekVBUkJySXB4MDVyQkFkQU05Q1gyR19GYjI4MXViMVF5UnZZbHJCdG9jdld4WHpB0gGOAUFVX3lxTE1uejRpYVFWS0s1dEpRaURualR2YWZuN0JrTkRHVEM3enE0ZXh5LWI0cFMyRzVFR0tTdktZOW1vMEVia2RxRWdNS1NuNUg4TEVrQ0xvRW9ESEdZOTl4c3A1YUMwYUxfcHVoNVRUbVZwQ0hZSE1UZU9tZzNOaTJGTTlpaFZzX3RadFRDVV9pR0E?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-10"},{"id":"E6","title":"Trump calls Strait of Hormuz blockade ‘history’s greatest’","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMikAFBVV95cUxNX1EwcGhxVzFLQ2xYSG83alZmVUVTZ2RLcmt3MWJnQ3ZJUGlaVlY5R3J5MXc5V2dDNXpiellVM2FUc0pxREhwN21YVThZcGtDNXlLWjJGY1YwQkxwRkRnM0ViaXh6LW5SN2Nic2FFSG4yYlN5Y1BtRFhDUEwtVDY0TzZBRTBNaVdfbFhZUHJyZ1rSAZYBQVVfeXFMTVFjZFhFSVFPbU10STk2TWFhRnIyRVdERllEWEt0eXpiMUdfLWpNUzllcXY3TVh0bnlPb3BIYnJXRThXZWgxcTJVd0JZMWIwX21CZmMwRldZQVB5Q3VNRXpBd25LQU05UHVmMW8xVkNTWGkyd0xlOWpVUDZtaXFiaW9SVzdCM2QtZEEyeVZBWXF3bGlrVFRB?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-09"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"All headlines are from before the question date and reflect ongoing tensions already priced into the 2.5% market, with no new information about actual traffic normalization by Nov 30.","watch":"Reports of tanker transits or official shipping advisories resuming normal schedules in the Strait by Nov 20-25."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":-1.5,"cites":["E1","E2","E6"],"mechanism":"E1 confirms active attacks on tankers, E2 signals Iranian intent to maintain disruption indefinitely, and E6 shows Trump framing blockade as historic, suggesting escalation rather than resolution—all making normalization by Nov 30 far less likely than 2.5% implies.","watch":"Any ceasefire announcement or Iranian statement accepting negotiated reopening of the strait by November 20."}],"related_markets":[],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-03","start":107.03,"now_date":"2026-11-03","now":107.03,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":12.275,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-11-30"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:36:41.221Z"}