{"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-december-31-2026-20260727171803489-375-949-645-919-269-157-255-857","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-12-31","score":1.736,"forecast":0.277,"crowd":0.277,"live_quote":0.2785,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-december-31-2026-20260727171803489-375-949-645-919-269-157-255-857","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":28,"at":"2026-11-12T17:15:24.263Z","crowd":0.3555,"forecast":0.3555,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"fcfed67ccdc9ced2817215b4514e5f3f71d6df69e873078022d513411cb837e1","prev_hash":"ceaa942681710b396e801a08a16cc8861c5584128d69e49eb13e92127c1527a2","tokens":836},{"id":34,"at":"2026-11-12T18:15:24.318Z","crowd":0.3035,"forecast":0.3035,"trigger":"crowd moved -5 pts","hash":"f43f720f6ad3daa864c1c7c686efbde3f281e7c28fe7cabc793a758c2a303e31","prev_hash":"07d3db69d269689d7e33e64af1991730aabee88369b31822f0a35cb638c0fade","tokens":841},{"id":50,"at":"2026-11-12T21:15:24.342Z","crowd":0.277,"forecast":0.277,"trigger":"1 new signal","hash":"ba2587684fa6ad9c86837dc190266b8af65d039d835d25a11d625db1041b2b27","prev_hash":"bcd03cc0ff3fb9ad4bd90dd25b01d8bc98fa18560f2ba27c39f55e054c3ad391","tokens":870}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"Iranian men guilty of spying on British journalists","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/11/12/iranian-men-guilty-of-spying-on-british-journalists?traffic_source=rss","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E2","title":"Trump planning new military assault or tighter sanctions, say Iranian officials","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/nov/11/trump-planning-military-assault-or-tighter-sanctions-iranian-officials","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E3","title":"UK court convicts 2 Iranian men of spying on journalists","url":"https://www.dw.com/en/uk-court-convicts-2-iranian-men-of-spying-on-journalists/a-79931583?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E4","title":"UK court finds two Iranian men guilty of spying for Iran","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/12/uk-court-finds-two-iranian-men-guilty-of-spying-for-iran?traffic_source=rss","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E5","title":"US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent relocated after alleged Iranian threats","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqr7gr0010r2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E6","title":"Strait of Hormuz: Chinese ships get free pass, Iranian official says","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxQV0lwT0ZGeVZweFlDNk5kZEcyZWg5ZmJEby1wYzl2bkVXc1hTcWpGZEdBVlhMLW4wYmdNanpxVzNMeGNxaW9QVHNUUS1DbnBadlFKYklhVjhjT2h6U2NCY3BwaEV2aUpocmtBV1NDR2tYSTNEU3BONWlSYkVZMExjSUVBRjRPTkhfOG9HLThtQjJiS0x3cGJjSU9jXzhaVGRfMWIwRjhubzhMd0tO0gGsAUFVX3lxTE1FVVV2dGFOOUlZTjdZNDl4cVc1Y0xhYldrZF85cEhqclZ4dEdoNWVpYlFmSkpST0piWlQwSGh1OVZYcHV1Rm1lNUNtMmdSNkRBVUZGQnAxcGRGOG5IT3owMmtKNzR1Z21zREJIUHVDbUdjZFhwZU5IaEo0WmZDckQ3UkFxX1VJNXRPWDVTVEUyOWdhUkpxOW9FOXVCdDEzRWpzZXV2Uy1EWldhVWs?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-06"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headlines reflect ongoing tensions and espionage cases but do not directly address the US lifting the blockade by Dec 31, and the crowd price already incorporates such geopolitical noise.","watch":"Any official US statement or UN resolution specifically mentioning lifting the Iranian blockade before Dec 31."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":-0.8,"cites":["E2","E5","E6"],"mechanism":"E2 suggests escalating US-Iran confrontation (military assault or tighter sanctions, not ending blockade), E5 shows heightened Iranian threat posture against US officials, and E6 reveals selective enforcement of Hormuz restrictions inconsistent with ending blockade soon.","watch":"Any US official statement mentioning negotiations or de-escalation with Iran regarding Hormuz shipping access."}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","yes":0.025,"vol24":75395,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-03","start":107.03,"now_date":"2026-11-03","now":107.03,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":12.275,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-december-31-2026-20260727171803489-375-949-645-919-269-157-255-857","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; 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