{"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-15-2026","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-11-15","score":1.364,"forecast":0.0165,"crowd":0.0165,"live_quote":0.0165,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-15-2026","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":66,"at":"2026-11-13T00:15:24.316Z","crowd":0.0165,"forecast":0.0165,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"cbfd47bde0de79a12fb9b3806f91d4e5e4539eb168006e53b640b0d2fd042dc9","prev_hash":"e74761f2bbed7ef2993993f2a2fe6ebd9d431798e9f1ffd686e41e6d8b42fb6b","tokens":890}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"Iranian men guilty of spying on British journalists","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/11/12/iranian-men-guilty-of-spying-on-british-journalists?traffic_source=rss","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E2","title":"Trump planning new military assault or tighter sanctions, say Iranian officials","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/nov/11/trump-planning-military-assault-or-tighter-sanctions-iranian-officials","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E3","title":"UK court convicts 2 Iranian men of spying on journalists","url":"https://www.dw.com/en/uk-court-convicts-2-iranian-men-of-spying-on-journalists/a-79931583?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E4","title":"UK court finds two Iranian men guilty of spying for Iran","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/12/uk-court-finds-two-iranian-men-guilty-of-spying-for-iran?traffic_source=rss","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E5","title":"US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent relocated after alleged Iranian threats","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqr7gr0010r2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E6","title":"Strait of Hormuz: Chinese ships get free pass, Iranian official says","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxQV0lwT0ZGeVZweFlDNk5kZEcyZWg5ZmJEby1wYzl2bkVXc1hTcWpGZEdBVlhMLW4wYmdNanpxVzNMeGNxaW9QVHNUUS1DbnBadlFKYklhVjhjT2h6U2NCY3BwaEV2aUpocmtBV1NDR2tYSTNEU3BONWlSYkVZMExjSUVBRjRPTkhfOG9HLThtQjJiS0x3cGJjSU9jXzhaVGRfMWIwRjhubzhMd0tO0gGsAUFVX3lxTE1FVVV2dGFOOUlZTjdZNDl4cVc1Y0xhYldrZF85cEhqclZ4dEdoNWVpYlFmSkpST0piWlQwSGh1OVZYcHV1Rm1lNUNtMmdSNkRBVUZGQnAxcGRGOG5IT3owMmtKNzR1Z21zREJIUHVDbUdjZFhwZU5IaEo0WmZDckQ3UkFxX1VJNXRPWDVTVEUyOWdhUkpxOW9FOXVCdDEzRWpzZXV2Uy1EWldhVWs?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-06"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headlines are about espionage, threats, and sanctions, but none directly address the US ending an Iranian blockade by November 15, and the crowd already prices this at 1.7%, so no new information warrants a shift.","watch":"Any official US or Iranian statement about lifting or tightening the blockade before November 15."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":-0.5,"cites":["E2","E5","E6"],"mechanism":"E2 suggests escalating US-Iran tensions with military or sanctions threats, E5 reveals alleged Iranian threats against top US officials, and E6 indicates ongoing Iranian control of Hormuz with Chinese favoritism—all making a sudden blockade end by Nov 15 less plausible.","watch":"Whether any US-Iran backchannel talks or de-escalation statements emerge by November 14-15."}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","yes":0.025,"vol24":75395,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-03","start":107.03,"now_date":"2026-11-03","now":107.03,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":12.275,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-15-2026","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-11-15"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:36:40.466Z"}