{"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-30-2026","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-11-30","score":1.499,"forecast":0.085,"crowd":0.085,"live_quote":0.085,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-30-2026","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":21,"at":"2026-11-12T15:15:24.372Z","crowd":0.195,"forecast":0.195,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"e71b3d3dcf6259c422686b562af5a3331446f8c9004e3f2f6f24a1ee692ccc62","prev_hash":"6ac585d522e837a7fb33cf7280e503dff39031181224d5221381f819bc724e1a","tokens":662},{"id":26,"at":"2026-11-12T16:15:24.603Z","crowd":0.095,"forecast":0.095,"trigger":"3 new signals","hash":"7b6fcf5e91a1c4457879e19278907a76fb3fb56e768a93c06870c38fe971f2f5","prev_hash":"67b20f5ecacdb0a591bf6c21d31a18be84924f011332a539c6c01fd945c5add3","tokens":818},{"id":46,"at":"2026-11-12T20:15:24.991Z","crowd":0.085,"forecast":0.085,"trigger":"1 new signal","hash":"52ff0e77c922c81d2b2a7c91898604705aa54fe6d58f69c954d455c02fbe1f56","prev_hash":"6934160a54bd0fd190040863cc91a6e3662f5faff5ff8de42d63a5388a003f77","tokens":889}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"Iranian men guilty of spying on British journalists","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/11/12/iranian-men-guilty-of-spying-on-british-journalists?traffic_source=rss","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E2","title":"Trump planning new military assault or tighter sanctions, say Iranian officials","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/nov/11/trump-planning-military-assault-or-tighter-sanctions-iranian-officials","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E3","title":"UK court convicts 2 Iranian men of spying on journalists","url":"https://www.dw.com/en/uk-court-convicts-2-iranian-men-of-spying-on-journalists/a-79931583?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E4","title":"UK court finds two Iranian men guilty of spying for Iran","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/12/uk-court-finds-two-iranian-men-guilty-of-spying-for-iran?traffic_source=rss","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E5","title":"US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent relocated after alleged Iranian threats","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqr7gr0010r2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E6","title":"Strait of Hormuz: Chinese ships get free pass, Iranian official says","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxQV0lwT0ZGeVZweFlDNk5kZEcyZWg5ZmJEby1wYzl2bkVXc1hTcWpGZEdBVlhMLW4wYmdNanpxVzNMeGNxaW9QVHNUUS1DbnBadlFKYklhVjhjT2h6U2NCY3BwaEV2aUpocmtBV1NDR2tYSTNEU3BONWlSYkVZMExjSUVBRjRPTkhfOG9HLThtQjJiS0x3cGJjSU9jXzhaVGRfMWIwRjhubzhMd0tO0gGsAUFVX3lxTE1FVVV2dGFOOUlZTjdZNDl4cVc1Y0xhYldrZF85cEhqclZ4dEdoNWVpYlFmSkpST0piWlQwSGh1OVZYcHV1Rm1lNUNtMmdSNkRBVUZGQnAxcGRGOG5IT3owMmtKNzR1Z21zREJIUHVDbUdjZFhwZU5IaEo0WmZDckQ3UkFxX1VJNXRPWDVTVEUyOWdhUkpxOW9FOXVCdDEzRWpzZXV2Uy1EWldhVWs?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-06"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headlines reflect ongoing tensions and espionage cases but none directly indicate a change in the US blockade timeline or a credible path to ending it by Nov 30, so the crowd's low probability remains justified.","watch":"Any official US or Iranian statement about lifting or easing the blockade before Nov 30."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":-1.2,"cites":["E2","E5","E6"],"mechanism":"E2 indicates Trump is planning escalation (military assault or tighter sanctions), not de-escalation; E5 shows heightened US-Iran tensions with alleged threats against Treasury Secretary; E6 reveals Iranian officials are selectively enforcing Hormuz access, suggesting ongoing blockade leverage rathe","watch":"US official statement on whether military assets are being repositioned toward or away from Persian Gulf by November 19"}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","yes":0.025,"vol24":75395,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-03","start":107.03,"now_date":"2026-11-03","now":107.03,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":12.275,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-30-2026","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-11-30"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:36:38.958Z"}