{"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191","title":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-12-31","score":1.49,"forecast":0.075,"crowd":0.075,"live_quote":0.075,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191","call":null,"position":{"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191","title":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","category":"energy-geopolitics","side":"NO","opened_at":"2026-11-12T20:15:24.991Z","deadline":"2026-12-31","crowd_at_entry":0.075,"forecast_at_entry":0.0369,"forecast_now":0.075,"entry":0.925,"mark":0.925,"marked_live":true,"mark_source":"live quote","settled":false,"outcome":null,"stake":100,"shares":108.11,"value":100,"pnl":0,"expected_pnl":4.12},"entries":[{"id":3,"at":"2026-11-12T10:15:24.435Z","crowd":0.095,"forecast":0.095,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"c9ee680055330efbc6aef0a011a6b16dcb1c5b51f9d78ef164b5310134e3703f","prev_hash":"89976e519c6228453c5d8df2545006d7e03627a4a1ed3a853503855442c72272","tokens":689},{"id":9,"at":"2026-11-12T12:15:24.424Z","crowd":0.095,"forecast":0.095,"trigger":"1 new signal","hash":"0c9828e947daf5a806e65cdd823b8cdd891835f02a619344cbef93ddf9a27871","prev_hash":"eb44b6685eb4cac0a6d491bba732f5a9955a776b4782a8359144f318f515c9f4","tokens":765},{"id":47,"at":"2026-11-12T20:15:24.991Z","crowd":0.075,"forecast":0.0369,"trigger":"6 new signals","hash":"5d572f04c9249077f4af368b854e338c489a12f168b5ee04f6e6c423ff0e9009","prev_hash":"52ff0e77c922c81d2b2a7c91898604705aa54fe6d58f69c954d455c02fbe1f56","tokens":917},{"id":56,"at":"2026-11-12T22:15:24.504Z","crowd":0.075,"forecast":0.075,"trigger":"1 new signal","hash":"11449a838daf79ce58910581b30d23b1f2f2886fcf5ef18a078b325283ac0b89","prev_hash":"a22380175ee26ee1586021c7bf9358adf4f258770d8803312c338e39f1512fcc","tokens":919}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"Cerebras surges 18% after beating on quarterly revenue and announcing Microsoft deal","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/12/cerebras-systems-cbrs-q3-earnings-report-2026.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E2","title":"Trump says no deal needed on Iran war and orders Vance to focus on domestic issues","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/12/trump-jd-vance-iran-war","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E3","title":"Feds Greenlight Construction of Advanced Nuclear Reactors in Texas","url":"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12112026/texas-dow-nuclear-plant-greenlit/","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E4","title":"Glycosylation and importins liquefy the FG barrier in live nuclear pores","url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11258-0","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E5","title":"Brent Briefly Hits $94 After Trump Says U.S. Has No Need for Iran Deal","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Brent-Briefly-Hits-94-After-Trump-Says-US-Has-No-Need-for-Iran-Deal.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E6","title":"The SS United States takes its final voyage to the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico","url":"https://www.npr.org/2026/11/12/g-s1-153219/the-deliberate-sinking-of-the-ss-united-states","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0.5,"cites":["E2","E5"],"mechanism":"Trump's explicit rejection of a deal and the resulting oil price spike directly lower the probability of a final nuclear deal by year-end, which the crowd may not have fully priced in given the 7.5% baseline.","watch":"Any subsequent Trump or Vance statement softening the stance or announcing renewed negotiations within the next week."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":-1.5,"cites":["E2","E5"],"mechanism":"Trump explicitly stating no deal is needed and oil markets pricing in no deal suggests administration has closed door to negotiations, directly contradicting crowd's 7.5% probability which may not yet reflect this policy shift","watch":"Whether Trump or Vance makes any statement about Iran nuclear talks or sanctions in next 7 days"}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-by-november-30-2026","title":"Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?","yes":0.095,"vol24":46113,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-by-november-30-2026"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-03","start":107.03,"now_date":"2026-11-03","now":107.03,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":12.275,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-12-31"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:28:36.250Z"}