{"slug":"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-15-20261108","title":"US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-11-15","score":1.821,"forecast":0.43,"crowd":0.43,"live_quote":0.435,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-15-20261108","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":49,"at":"2026-11-12T21:15:24.342Z","crowd":0.425,"forecast":0.425,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"bcd03cc0ff3fb9ad4bd90dd25b01d8bc98fa18560f2ba27c39f55e054c3ad391","prev_hash":"3f53c07fefdd01e6ea27c71666e31b207d72cda36ba5116a4a2e1df528911896","tokens":945},{"id":58,"at":"2026-11-12T23:15:24.507Z","crowd":0.43,"forecast":0.43,"trigger":"1 new 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Iran","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/world/iran-trump-war-hegseth-impeach.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E5","title":"Son of Iran's shah receives 'Freedom Prize' in Frankfurt","url":"https://www.dw.com/en/son-of-iran-s-shah-receives-freedom-prize-in-frankfurt/a-79885661?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E6","title":"Federal Reserve Board announces pricing, effective January 1, 2027, for payment services the Federal Reserve Banks provide to banks and credit unions, and changes to streamline and adjust their check services","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20261112a.htm","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headlines are consistent with the market's 43% probability of a ceasefire by Nov 15, as they suggest de-escalation but not a formal verified ceasefire, and the crowd likely already priced in such statements.","watch":"Official joint US-Iran announcement or UN ceasefire resolution before Nov 15."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":1.2,"cites":["E1","E2","E3"],"mechanism":"Multiple senior US officials (Trump, Rubio) explicitly stating the Iran war is 'effectively over' and 'major combat operations no longer needed' directly signals an effective ceasefire is already in place, which the 43% market may underweight due to 'no deal needed' framing causing ambiguity about f","watch":"Whether Iran reciprocates with de-escalation (stops missile/drone strikes, releases statements acknowledging stand-down) by November 15."}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?","yes":0.946,"vol24":376801,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15"},{"slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","yes":0.075,"vol24":256996,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027"},{"slug":"iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568-685-996-469-827","title":"Iran leadership change by December 31?","yes":0.085,"vol24":202306,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568-685-996-469-827"},{"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191","title":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","yes":0.075,"vol24":183633,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191"},{"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?","yes":0.855,"vol24":152746,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-03","start":107.03,"now_date":"2026-11-03","now":107.03,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":12.275,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-15-20261108","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-11-15"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:36:35.059Z"}