{"slug":"will-anthropic-ipo-by-november-19-2026","title":"Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?","category":"capital","moves":"The price and timing of a major capital raise or deal, and its read-across to peers.","deadline":"2026-11-19","score":1.589,"forecast":0.9605,"crowd":0.9605,"live_quote":0.964,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-anthropic-ipo-by-november-19-2026","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":40,"at":"2026-11-12T19:15:24.233Z","crowd":0.9605,"forecast":0.9605,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"5bdc39995b89c2aaf43844fda72df8105e8d94a75d6d055951054066b1c46dda","prev_hash":"03f806532642181d9442c515fc9264c8c82a27056186745caa077e2ff3f13d84","tokens":857}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"Anthropic’s Giant IPO Will Tie It Closer to Nvidia","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/business/anthropic-ipo-nvidia.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E2","title":"Anthropic IPO","url":"https://ipo.anthropic.com/us/","source":"hn","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E3","title":"Anthropic IPO buyers see valuation as low as $1.1T","url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-06/anthropic-ipo-valuation-expectations-pressured-after-ai-rout","source":"hn","date":"2026-11-06"},{"id":"E4","title":"Anthropic IPO filing: $1.7B quarterly payroll, about $107K per employee monthly","url":"https://www.techspot.com/news/114428-anthropic-ipo-filing-reveals-17-billion-quarterly-personnel.html","source":"hn","date":"2026-11-03"},{"id":"E5","title":"The SEC Should Block Anthropic's IPO to Protect the Public","url":"https://www.techpolicy.press/the-sec-should-block-anthropics-ipo-to-protect-the-public/","source":"hn","date":"2026-11-03"},{"id":"E6","title":"Anthropic Targets Valuation of Up to $1.4 Trillion for Blockbuster I.P.O.","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/technology/anthropic-ipo-valuation-share-price.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"All headlines are consistent with the already-priced 96.1% probability of an IPO by the deadline, and none reveal new, unabsorbed information about a last-minute cancellation or delay.","watch":"Any official SEC postponement or Anthropic announcement of IPO withdrawal before 2026-11-19."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"All headlines confirm an already-announced and highly anticipated IPO with no new obstacles or surprises; the 96.1% market price already reflects this public information.","watch":"SEC announces formal block or delay of Anthropic's IPO filing before November 19."}],"related_markets":[],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"SP500","name":"S&P 500 index","unit":"","start_date":"2026-11-11","start":7619.38,"now_date":"2026-11-11","now":7619.38,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":10.95,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market will-anthropic-ipo-by-november-19-2026","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-11-19"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:36:32.651Z"}