{"slug":"will-anthropic-ipo-by-november-20-2026","title":"Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?","category":"capital","moves":"The price and timing of a major capital raise or deal, and its read-across to peers.","deadline":"2026-11-20","score":1.593,"forecast":0.9585,"crowd":0.9585,"live_quote":0.972,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-anthropic-ipo-by-november-20-2026","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":2,"at":"2026-11-12T10:15:24.435Z","crowd":0.9345,"forecast":0.9345,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"89976e519c6228453c5d8df2545006d7e03627a4a1ed3a853503855442c72272","prev_hash":"82514e343329efb1c435dc2838c359a12cb277d72bee342a32b0652071e6ee55","tokens":865},{"id":5,"at":"2026-11-12T11:15:24.443Z","crowd":0.8485,"forecast":0.8485,"trigger":"crowd moved -9 pts","hash":"7345e51a6bf7d8e37e7cb1ef080c75c0672ea5eacfb688679a8d297dcaf0aa98","prev_hash":"9778905c63941929840f85737f31f4ab5418ed725dbab1b150198bb164367e7f","tokens":865},{"id":8,"at":"2026-11-12T12:15:24.424Z","crowd":0.9195,"forecast":0.9195,"trigger":"1 new signal","hash":"eb44b6685eb4cac0a6d491bba732f5a9955a776b4782a8359144f318f515c9f4","prev_hash":"575d10780709888473e277acb6c0f98ad056b70c99eb297b8789ed39cef214c1","tokens":895},{"id":25,"at":"2026-11-12T16:15:24.603Z","crowd":0.953,"forecast":0.953,"trigger":"3 new signals","hash":"67b20f5ecacdb0a591bf6c21d31a18be84924f011332a539c6c01fd945c5add3","prev_hash":"bc46b9d7e551d7245666ff9b74880b92423f2a2f22ba04dd853d10ba5058c004","tokens":843},{"id":31,"at":"2026-11-12T17:15:24.263Z","crowd":0.9675,"forecast":0.9675,"trigger":"1 new signal","hash":"0c8d24a1d42ba0747a6f498e8c03eb321194c6d63dfd4c22b464cec5eb13f1b6","prev_hash":"b5604e702423c49b5ef65fb10f829b04e1eab48131e285138be04fdf469e5e31","tokens":851},{"id":36,"at":"2026-11-12T18:15:24.318Z","crowd":0.9585,"forecast":0.9585,"trigger":"1 new signal","hash":"37bc4bde91369e6e5063520dbb324bc34d50b17d932522140bfa713e3bb1c0b6","prev_hash":"bc821dd598cbf48dc9497c5bc774b6fb1c7227ff0f431d793a5fc373fc6c0646","tokens":858}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"Anthropic’s Giant IPO Will Tie It Closer to Nvidia","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/business/anthropic-ipo-nvidia.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E2","title":"Anthropic IPO","url":"https://ipo.anthropic.com/us/","source":"hn","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E3","title":"Anthropic IPO buyers see valuation as low as $1.1T","url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-06/anthropic-ipo-valuation-expectations-pressured-after-ai-rout","source":"hn","date":"2026-11-06"},{"id":"E4","title":"Anthropic IPO filing: $1.7B quarterly payroll, about $107K per employee monthly","url":"https://www.techspot.com/news/114428-anthropic-ipo-filing-reveals-17-billion-quarterly-personnel.html","source":"hn","date":"2026-11-03"},{"id":"E5","title":"The SEC Should Block Anthropic's IPO to Protect the Public","url":"https://www.techpolicy.press/the-sec-should-block-anthropics-ipo-to-protect-the-public/","source":"hn","date":"2026-11-03"},{"id":"E6","title":"Anthropic Targets Valuation of Up to $1.4 Trillion for Blockbuster I.P.O.","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/technology/anthropic-ipo-valuation-share-price.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"All headlines are consistent with the already-priced 95.9% probability of an IPO by the date, and none reveal unabsorbed information about the IPO actually occurring versus being delayed or blocked.","watch":"Any official SEC filing or Anthropic statement postponing or canceling the IPO before November 20."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"All headlines confirm an already-announced and highly anticipated IPO with no new obstacles or surprises; the 95.9% market price already reflects this public information.","watch":"Anthropic begins trading on a public exchange or announces a specific pricing date before November 20"}],"related_markets":[],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"SP500","name":"S&P 500 index","unit":"","start_date":"2026-11-11","start":7619.38,"now_date":"2026-11-11","now":7619.38,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":10.95,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market will-anthropic-ipo-by-november-20-2026","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-11-20"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:36:32.952Z"}