{"slug":"will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","title":"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-12-31","score":1.424,"forecast":0.045,"crowd":0.045,"live_quote":0.045,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":51,"at":"2026-11-12T21:15:24.342Z","crowd":0.07,"forecast":0.07,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"9217d77709b6c26e513c765a1bbcc67fef1be82a2676d2afc6233983fffc3c5a","prev_hash":"ba2587684fa6ad9c86837dc190266b8af65d039d835d25a11d625db1041b2b27","tokens":910},{"id":57,"at":"2026-11-12T22:15:24.504Z","crowd":0.045,"forecast":0.045,"trigger":"2 new signals","hash":"b6ab4c21bb87e7b08c489787f90027e280954922dc816a65d754dc044e0b77b0","prev_hash":"11449a838daf79ce58910581b30d23b1f2f2886fcf5ef18a078b325283ac0b89","tokens":909},{"id":60,"at":"2026-11-12T23:15:24.507Z","crowd":0.045,"forecast":0.045,"trigger":"1 new signal","hash":"342272fc53f272eef49643b6ff77fdcbadeb97eb65204b4875c3fbb485e1650d","prev_hash":"d8963f3a0ce4f0eef61cb90afd57498467e98e66ba1f18ca5ebae7667e3fe608","tokens":919},{"id":64,"at":"2026-11-13T00:15:24.316Z","crowd":0.045,"forecast":0.045,"trigger":"1 new signal","hash":"cb3d08705038c1bc47344dd7eceb22def7a0552fc11f7eb6cfcd3713401414a2","prev_hash":"e08efd5e21fc8a995961848c8ea523a58ef3e4d5be39ac7eff7b6f1fb361d528","tokens":897}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"EIA forecasts Alaskan crude oil production to grow 13% in 2027","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68444","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E2","title":"Angola Looks to Diversify from Crude with Windfall Oil Revenues","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Angola-Looks-to-Diversify-from-Crude-with-Windfall-Oil-Revenues.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E3","title":"India Boosts Gulf Oil Imports as Russian Crude Loses Its Price Advantage","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/India-Boosts-Gulf-Oil-Imports-as-Russian-Crude-Loses-Its-Price-Advantage.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E4","title":"U.S. crude oil imports from Venezuela in July were highest since 2017","url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68425","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E5","title":"Venezuela Ends 19-Year Power Monopoly, With Oil Fields First in Line","url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Venezuela-Ends-19-Year-Power-Monopoly-With-Oil-Fields-First-in-Line.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E6","title":"More Drilling Won’t Shield U.S. Consumers From Oil Price Shocks","url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/More-Drilling-Wont-Shield-US-Consumers-From-Oil-Price-Shocks.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"Headlines reflect supply-side increases and diversification, but none directly challenge the all-time-high threshold or provide unabsorbed demand shock information, so the crowd's low probability stands.","watch":"Any major OPEC+ production cut announcement or unplanned supply disruption in the next week."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"All headlines reflect supply increases (Alaskan production growth, Venezuelan imports up, more drilling debate) or demand shifts already priced in, with no surprise about constrained supply or demand surge that would drive prices to uncharted highs within 7 weeks.","watch":"OPEC+ emergency meeting announcement or major supply disruption in Middle East Gulf shipping lanes"}],"related_markets":[],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-03","start":107.03,"now_date":"2026-11-03","now":107.03,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":12.275,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-12-31"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:36:38.377Z"}