{"slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","title":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-12-31","score":1.379,"forecast":0.0275,"crowd":0.0275,"live_quote":0.0255,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":62,"at":"2026-11-12T23:15:24.507Z","crowd":0.0275,"forecast":0.0275,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"19d738035f7a6e89dcaa57604262845489229021515261b7d060030fd86e8449","prev_hash":"8a5c7683c5285162ec9c2110694709a223d42bf83b4923ec29ae00db43beb09b","tokens":833}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"Iranian men guilty of spying on British journalists","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/11/12/iranian-men-guilty-of-spying-on-british-journalists?traffic_source=rss","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E2","title":"Trump planning new military assault or tighter sanctions, say Iranian officials","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/nov/11/trump-planning-military-assault-or-tighter-sanctions-iranian-officials","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E3","title":"UK court convicts 2 Iranian men of spying on journalists","url":"https://www.dw.com/en/uk-court-convicts-2-iranian-men-of-spying-on-journalists/a-79931583?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E4","title":"UK court finds two Iranian men guilty of spying for Iran","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/12/uk-court-finds-two-iranian-men-guilty-of-spying-for-iran?traffic_source=rss","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E5","title":"US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent relocated after alleged Iranian threats","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqr7gr0010r2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E6","title":"Strait of Hormuz: Chinese ships get free pass, Iranian official says","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxQV0lwT0ZGeVZweFlDNk5kZEcyZWg5ZmJEby1wYzl2bkVXc1hTcWpGZEdBVlhMLW4wYmdNanpxVzNMeGNxaW9QVHNUUS1DbnBadlFKYklhVjhjT2h6U2NCY3BwaEV2aUpocmtBV1NDR2tYSTNEU3BONWlSYkVZMExjSUVBRjRPTkhfOG9HLThtQjJiS0x3cGJjSU9jXzhaVGRfMWIwRjhubzhMd0tO0gGsAUFVX3lxTE1FVVV2dGFOOUlZTjdZNDl4cVc1Y0xhYldrZF85cEhqclZ4dEdoNWVpYlFmSkpST0piWlQwSGh1OVZYcHV1Rm1lNUNtMmdSNkRBVUZGQnAxcGRGOG5IT3owMmtKNzR1Z21zREJIUHVDbUdjZFhwZU5IaEo0WmZDckQ3UkFxX1VJNXRPWDVTVEUyOWdhUkpxOW9FOXVCdDEzRWpzZXV2Uy1EWldhVWs?oc=5","source":"gnews","date":"2026-11-06"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headlines are mostly about espionage convictions and threats, which are routine adversarial noise and do not indicate a structural collapse of the regime before 2027, so the crowd's low probability remains justified.","watch":"Any sign of mass protests or military defections inside Iran in the next week."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"Headlines describe ongoing tensions and espionage cases but no new information about regime stability; all consistent with status quo already priced in at 2.8%.","watch":"Any mass protests or security force defections in Iran following the reported US military planning or sanctions escalation."}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-30-2026","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?","yes":0.085,"vol24":143102,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-30-2026"},{"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-december-31-2026-20260727171803489-375-949-645-919-269-157-255-857","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?","yes":0.279,"vol24":108876,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-december-31-2026-20260727171803489-375-949-645-919-269-157-255-857"},{"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-15-2026","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?","yes":0.017,"vol24":95205,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-15-2026"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-03","start":107.03,"now_date":"2026-11-03","now":107.03,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":12.275,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-12-31"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:36:37.153Z"}