{"slug":"will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","title":"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","category":"energy-geopolitics","moves":"Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.","deadline":"2026-12-31","score":1.499,"forecast":0.075,"crowd":0.075,"live_quote":0.075,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":12,"at":"2026-11-12T13:15:24.233Z","crowd":0.125,"forecast":0.125,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"644ef244b1e8a4c6f13d0ff34b2e816a298d4b6f7accc38ecb43d9c9a2765c2a","prev_hash":"7c3f8eb9d6c77b874d7436634eb4bea9d9b05a6bda47eaff494d31cc0dc07fbe","tokens":907},{"id":15,"at":"2026-11-12T14:15:24.510Z","crowd":0.125,"forecast":0.125,"trigger":"1 new 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says no deal needed on Iran war and orders Vance to focus on domestic issues","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/12/trump-jd-vance-iran-war","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E3","title":"Rubio Says ‘Major Combat Operations’ in Iran War Are No Longer Needed","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/us/politics/rubio-iran-war.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E4","title":"No Good Choices on Iran","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/world/iran-trump-war-hegseth-impeach.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E5","title":"Son of Iran's shah receives 'Freedom Prize' in Frankfurt","url":"https://www.dw.com/en/son-of-iran-s-shah-receives-freedom-prize-in-frankfurt/a-79885661?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E6","title":"Brent Briefly Hits $94 After Trump Says U.S. Has No Need for Iran Deal","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Brent-Briefly-Hits-94-After-Trump-Says-US-Has-No-Need-for-Iran-Deal.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"The headlines already reflect an ongoing Iran war that is winding down, which is consistent with the low crowd probability of a new U.S. invasion before 2027, and no headline provides new information that the market hasn't already priced in.","watch":"Any official U.S. military mobilization or new executive order authorizing force against Iran."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":-1.5,"cites":["E1","E2","E3"],"mechanism":"Multiple high-level U.S. officials including Trump explicitly declaring the Iran war 'effectively over' and redirecting leadership to domestic issues directly contradicts the precondition for invasion, making near-term invasion extremely unlikely.","watch":"Any Trump statement reversing position and calling Iran deal unacceptable or demanding new military action"}],"related_markets":[{"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?","yes":0.946,"vol24":376801,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15"},{"slug":"iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568-685-996-469-827","title":"Iran leadership change by December 31?","yes":0.085,"vol24":202306,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568-685-996-469-827"},{"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191","title":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","yes":0.075,"vol24":183633,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191"},{"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?","yes":0.855,"vol24":152746,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22"},{"slug":"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-8-20261108","title":"US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?","yes":0.135,"vol24":113772,"url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-8-20261108"}],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DCOILBRENTEU","name":"Brent crude oil","unit":"$/bbl","start_date":"2026-11-03","start":107.03,"now_date":"2026-11-03","now":107.03,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":12.275,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"%"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-12-31"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:36:32.642Z"}