{"slug":"will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808635","title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?","category":"monetary","moves":"Borrowing costs: mortgage rates, bond prices and equity valuations.","deadline":"2026-12-31","score":1.41,"forecast":0.014,"crowd":0.014,"live_quote":0.017,"market_closed":false,"market_url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808635","call":null,"position":null,"entries":[{"id":4,"at":"2026-11-12T10:15:24.435Z","crowd":0.225,"forecast":0.225,"trigger":"first forecast","hash":"9778905c63941929840f85737f31f4ab5418ed725dbab1b150198bb164367e7f","prev_hash":"c9ee680055330efbc6aef0a011a6b16dcb1c5b51f9d78ef164b5310134e3703f","tokens":615},{"id":52,"at":"2026-11-12T21:15:24.342Z","crowd":0.0155,"forecast":0.0155,"trigger":"5 new signals","hash":"8577d3beccba5f195b97f8840a4b1c12369d31263d1aa7709ff127b5554c4e06","prev_hash":"9217d77709b6c26e513c765a1bbcc67fef1be82a2676d2afc6233983fffc3c5a","tokens":922},{"id":61,"at":"2026-11-12T23:15:24.507Z","crowd":0.014,"forecast":0.014,"trigger":"1 new signal","hash":"8a5c7683c5285162ec9c2110694709a223d42bf83b4923ec29ae00db43beb09b","prev_hash":"342272fc53f272eef49643b6ff77fdcbadeb97eb65204b4875c3fbb485e1650d","tokens":949}],"evidence":[{"id":"E1","title":"In a policy switch, the Fed says its October 2027 meeting will not see a vote on interest rates","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/12/in-policy-switch-fed-says-its-october-2027-meeting-will-not-see-a-vote-on-interest-rates.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E2","title":"Fed Will Not Hold Policy Vote at October 2027 Meeting","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/12/business/economy/fed-warsh-october.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E3","title":"Bond yields just saw their biggest surge since 2022 as expectations grow for more Fed rate hikes","url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-yields-just-saw-their-biggest-surge-since-2022-as-expectations-grow-for-more-fed-rate-hikes-d0a4f195?mod=mw_rss_topstories","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E4","title":"Elevated Inflation Keeps Pressure on Fed to Raise Rates","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/10/business/economy/inflation-economy-cpi.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E5","title":"The Fed Has to Raise Rates. How Fast to Go Has Officials Divided.","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/11/business/fed-interest-rates-inflation.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"},{"id":"E6","title":"10-year Treasury yield jumps back above 5% as oil gains and more Fed rate hikes expected","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/12/us-treasurys-bonds-yields.html","source":"rss","date":"2026-11-12"}],"verdicts":[{"model":"deepseek-v4-flash-0731","ok":true,"shift":0,"cites":[],"mechanism":"All headlines point to increased rate-hike expectations, which already lower the probability of 'no change' after December 2026, but the crowd price of 1.4% already reflects this extreme hawkish shift, and no headline specifically addresses the December 2026 meeting outcome beyond what is priced.","watch":"Any Fed statement or official projection in the next week explicitly mentioning the December 2026 meeting or a pause in hikes."},{"model":"kimi-k2.6","ok":true,"shift":-1.5,"cites":["E3","E4","E5","E6"],"mechanism":"Multiple headlines signal strong market expectation of continued rate hikes through 2026, making a December 2026 pause increasingly unlikely as the Fed appears to be in an active hiking cycle with divided officials still leaning toward faster increases.","watch":"November 2026 CPI/PCE inflation print release"}],"related_markets":[],"related_reports":[],"proxy":{"id":"DGS2","name":"2-year Treasury yield","unit":"%","start_date":"2026-11-10","start":4.73,"now_date":"2026-11-10","now":4.73,"change":0,"change_pct":0,"sensitivity":{"daily_sd":0.716,"move":0,"days":1,"z":0,"unit":"points"}},"resolution":{"source":"Polymarket market will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808635","rule":"settles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment","by":"2026-12-31"},"generated_at":"2026-11-13T00:36:41.012Z"}