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evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":64,"ts":"2026-11-10T12:20:26.277Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-759-am-et","fair_raw":0.5,"fair":0.5,"market":0.725,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"bb73c40afe70776d30d3fadebe88319a9968581c1ea2c017f0eb7025ecad1cd8","hash":"32c888f4968f7a165d624b5b3a94a0b3ad7b632ad7482b7e5a9c71fd09aab007","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T12:20:26.277Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-759-am-et\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?\",\"fair_raw\":0.5,\"fair\":0.5,\"market\":0.725,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The cited Wikipedia snippets (IShowSpeed's Rumble deal, the lapis-lazuli clip, Ludwig's subathon record, xQc/Twitch 2023 charts) are background on Kai Cenat and other streamers but say nothing about the GTA marathon's start, progress, or remaining content, and no live-stream data\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.45,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. On Ju\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261105\"},{\"t\":\"Lapis lazuli: exclaimed that he thought he had discovered diamonds, while fellow streamer Kai Cenat \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261106\"},{\"t\":\"Ludwig Ahgren: Twitch. His record lasted until February 2023, when it was broken by Kai Cenat. On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"XQc: 19, 2023. Retrieved June 20, 2023. Fragen, Jordan (December 19, 2023). \\\"KaiCenat, LoL, Diablo I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":63,"ts":"2026-11-10T11:50:26.075Z","slug":"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-14","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.055,"confidence":"no-ensemble","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"87fde65621d9da7866335ebf1d1f816f5337c05df8178875f18d4b6499c8b003","hash":"bb73c40afe70776d30d3fadebe88319a9968581c1ea2c017f0eb7025ecad1cd8","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T11:50:26.075Z\",\"slug\":\"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-14\",\"title\":\"Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 14?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.055,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"no-ensemble\",\"why\":\"fewer than 2 model answers\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-15T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Pete Hegseth: Peter Brian Hegseth (born June 6, 1980) is an American politician, U.S. Army veteran, \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth has served as the United States secretary of defe\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"The War on Warriors: non-fiction book by later United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. In t\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261110\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":62,"ts":"2026-11-10T11:40:27.009Z","slug":"will-anthropic-ipo-by-november-18-2026","fair_raw":0.41500000000000004,"fair":0.41500000000000004,"market":0.15,"confidence":"medium","domain":"tech","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"2551d490584f5ed51a20b5d80010f312e4a3454e9ffc1390e4c843ef6a4901da","hash":"87fde65621d9da7866335ebf1d1f816f5337c05df8178875f18d4b6499c8b003","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T11:40:27.009Z\",\"slug\":\"will-anthropic-ipo-by-november-18-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?\",\"fair_raw\":0.41500000000000004,\"fair\":0.41500000000000004,\"market\":0.15,\"spread\":0.02,\"confidence\":\"medium\",\"why\":\"Late-stage signals point to a November 2026 IPO — a prospectus/financials release was disclosed by 2026-11-09 and a ~$69.3B raise was circulated to banks — but the same-day retraction of filing details, market jitters, and the precedent of OpenAI's June 2026 delay make completing\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-19T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"tech\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.45,\"c\":\"medium\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.38,\"c\":\"medium\"}],\"sources\":{\"hn\":6,\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Anthropic's nearly $70B IPO plan briefly circulated to banks\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Anthropic Seeks to Raise $69.3B via Its IPO\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Anthropic sends out, then retracts details of IPO filing, emails show\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Anthropic reportedly plans to move forward with IPO plans\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Anthropic Prepares to Push Ahead with IPO Despite Market Jitters\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"Some Memories of Early Anthropic\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"Initial public offering of Anthropic: Anthropic, an American artificial intelligence company, is pla\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261102\"},{\"t\":\"Anthropic: Anthropic, PBC (stylized as ANTHROP\\\\C) is an American artificial intelligence (AI) public\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Initial public offering of OpenAI: an IPO on June 8, 2026. It was later delayed due to a combination\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261031\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":61,"ts":"2026-11-10T11:40:27.009Z","slug":"will-bitcoin-dip-to-70k-on-november-10-2026","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.0525,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"0670f26c63950b755b41405fcc45df32a5926e36787636ffdcaef94fc0be7f4a","hash":"2551d490584f5ed51a20b5d80010f312e4a3454e9ffc1390e4c843ef6a4901da","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T11:40:27.009Z\",\"slug\":\"will-bitcoin-dip-to-70k-on-november-10-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on November 10?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.0525,\"spread\":0.023,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":60,"ts":"2026-11-10T11:30:28.614Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-259-pm-et","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.845,"confidence":"no-ensemble","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"eb634ec7cc55c324988deac51212dd2035e30bdbd638ead5d7e915d1082796c1","hash":"0670f26c63950b755b41405fcc45df32a5926e36787636ffdcaef94fc0be7f4a","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T11:30:28.614Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-259-pm-et\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.845,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"no-ensemble\",\"why\":\"fewer than 2 model answers\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. On Ju\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261105\"},{\"t\":\"Lapis lazuli: exclaimed that he thought he had discovered diamonds, while fellow streamer Kai Cenat \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261106\"},{\"t\":\"Ludwig Ahgren: Twitch. His record lasted until February 2023, when it was broken by Kai Cenat. On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"XQc: 19, 2023. Retrieved June 20, 2023. Fragen, Jordan (December 19, 2023). \\\"KaiCenat, LoL, Diablo I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":59,"ts":"2026-11-10T11:20:27.788Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11","fair_raw":0.5,"fair":0.5,"market":0.9475,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"4a75be25221d3d3a119adb07b82200db2dbc07238d7f06ccb9f579cb46e8bfc9","hash":"eb634ec7cc55c324988deac51212dd2035e30bdbd638ead5d7e915d1082796c1","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T11:20:27.788Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11?\",\"fair_raw\":0.5,\"fair\":0.5,\"market\":0.9475,\"spread\":0.009,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"None of the three Wikipedia snippets (IShowSpeed's Rumble deal, the lapis-lazuli anecdote, Ludwig's subathon record) mentions the GTA marathon's schedule, progress, or end date, so the evidence does not bear on the question; absent any relevant signal this sits at the base rate f\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-12T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. On Ju\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261105\"},{\"t\":\"Lapis lazuli: exclaimed that he thought he had discovered diamonds, while fellow streamer Kai Cenat \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261106\"},{\"t\":\"Ludwig Ahgren: Twitch. His record lasted until February 2023, when it was broken by Kai Cenat. On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"complement\":{\"p_no\":0.5,\"sum\":1,\"ok\":true},\"fake\":{\"p\":0.5,\"delta\":0,\"ok\":true}}}"},{"id":58,"ts":"2026-11-10T11:15:27.366Z","slug":"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-22-20261108","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.595,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"geopolitics","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"94601e70a1cb5eec7a6068c75272f9c4ec5d704747595f65c2353a2fcb71ccea","hash":"4a75be25221d3d3a119adb07b82200db2dbc07238d7f06ccb9f579cb46e8bfc9","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T11:15:27.366Z\",\"slug\":\"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-22-20261108\",\"title\":\"US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.595,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-22T20:29:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"geopolitics\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":57,"ts":"2026-11-10T11:15:27.366Z","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.905,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"geopolitics","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"d6d22511c3d686c00f0ef79a4aecbb26bfcade08a372321b07654448eb9ce01d","hash":"94601e70a1cb5eec7a6068c75272f9c4ec5d704747595f65c2353a2fcb71ccea","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T11:15:27.366Z\",\"slug\":\"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22\",\"title\":\"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.905,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-23T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"geopolitics\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":56,"ts":"2026-11-10T11:00:27.097Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-10-20261105","fair_raw":0.5,"fair":0.5,"market":0.156,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"aa40ec195bbbf21b31813c349d8aa8f5d43c71e5381e2c2a3400a8ac4d388b84","hash":"d6d22511c3d686c00f0ef79a4aecbb26bfcade08a372321b07654448eb9ce01d","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T11:00:27.097Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-10-20261105\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?\",\"fair_raw\":0.5,\"fair\":0.5,\"market\":0.156,\"spread\":0.006,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The evidence (Wikipedia edits about IShowSpeed's Rumble deal, a lapis lazuli Minecraft anecdote, and Ludwig's subathon record) does not bear on whether Kai Cenat's GTA marathon ends by 2026-11-10; with no relevant signal, this defaults to the ~50% base rate for deadline-completio\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. On Ju\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261105\"},{\"t\":\"Lapis lazuli: exclaimed that he thought he had discovered diamonds, while fellow streamer Kai Cenat \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261106\"},{\"t\":\"Ludwig Ahgren: Twitch. His record lasted until February 2023, when it was broken by Kai Cenat. On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":55,"ts":"2026-11-10T10:05:25.067Z","slug":"will-anthropic-ipo-by-november-16-2026","fair_raw":0.65,"fair":0.65,"market":0.0845,"confidence":"medium","domain":"tech","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"c2d2ff8471e7c4945f7afc98a0ede4b18376605feb39c0795ef6e2ae0c6cf9bc","hash":"aa40ec195bbbf21b31813c349d8aa8f5d43c71e5381e2c2a3400a8ac4d388b84","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T10:05:25.067Z\",\"slug\":\"will-anthropic-ipo-by-november-16-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?\",\"fair_raw\":0.65,\"fair\":0.65,\"market\":0.0845,\"spread\":0.037,\"confidence\":\"medium\",\"why\":\"Multiple reports from Nov 8-10, 2026 say Anthropic is actively pushing ahead with a November 2026 IPO seeking ~$69.3B, with filing details already circulated and pre-IPO model launches, making a listing within the 6-day window plausible; but the retracted filing email, last week'\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-17T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"tech\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.65,\"c\":\"medium\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.65,\"c\":\"medium\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.6,\"c\":\"medium\"}],\"sources\":{\"gdelt\":8,\"hn\":6,\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Trump says Iran war is  effectively over : How the conflict unfolded\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Dow Jones Top Company Headlines at 11 PM ET : The Spy Scandal That Lays Bare Nvidia Governance Vacuu\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Upcoming IPOs : SEBI clears 8 issues , including Mahanadi Coalfields , Veritas Finance and Sagar Def\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Anthropic launches powerful new models ahead of Wall Street debut\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"PYMNTS | OpenAI Valuation Hits $1 . 25 Trillion in New Funding Round\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"artificial intelligence news : Anthropic wants to create new billionaires through its IPO , but Amer\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261108\"},{\"t\":\"AI apocalypse now ? \",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261108\"},{\"t\":\"Dow Jones , S & P 500 , Nasdaq : Last week AI stocks crash is not your garden variety correction\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"Anthropic Seeks to Raise $69.3B via Its IPO\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261110\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":54,"ts":"2026-11-10T07:35:25.237Z","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-15-2026","fair_raw":0.12,"fair":0.12,"market":0.0535,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"56c976f9a0e1e811fc8a89753ce446f0db1e895f45e91a1be22c93c27b680374","hash":"c2d2ff8471e7c4945f7afc98a0ede4b18376605feb39c0795ef6e2ae0c6cf9bc","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T07:35:25.237Z\",\"slug\":\"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-15-2026\",\"title\":\"US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?\",\"fair_raw\":0.12,\"fair\":0.12,\"market\":0.0535,\"spread\":0.001,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The blockade article (edited 2026-11-09) still describes active US seizures of Iranian vessels, and the Iran war article (edited 2026-11-10) reports ongoing attacks including strikes on Haifa, so hostilities and the blockade appear active days before the deadline; the June 14 Tru\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-16T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.12,\"c\":\"medium\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.12,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.12,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"2026 United States naval blockade of Iran: destroyer USS Spruance seized the Iranian-flagged vessel \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"Iran: renewed during the Islamic Golden Age and Iranian Intermezzo, a period during which Iranian Mu\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"2026 Iran war: petrochemical plant in Iran, leading to a retaliatory Iranian attack on Haifa. Two Ir\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Assassination of Ali Khamenei:  the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, as well as Iranian st\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261031\"}],\"probe\":{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"complement\":{\"p_no\":0.82,\"sum\":0.94,\"ok\":true},\"fake\":{\"p\":0.15,\"delta\":0.03,\"ok\":true}}}"},{"id":53,"ts":"2026-11-10T07:35:25.237Z","slug":"will-bitcoin-reach-76k-november-9-15-2026","fair_raw":0.4,"fair":0.4,"market":0.73,"confidence":"low","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"2cda3b43b98b09fb8db5a7f02f83a414be8dc7dea44a24cc46523f6fad3fed56","hash":"56c976f9a0e1e811fc8a89753ce446f0db1e895f45e91a1be22c93c27b680374","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T07:35:25.237Z\",\"slug\":\"will-bitcoin-reach-76k-november-9-15-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 November 9-15?\",\"fair_raw\":0.4,\"fair\":0.4,\"market\":0.73,\"spread\":0.02,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The cited evidence is only Wikipedia last-edited timestamps for tangentially related articles (cryptocurrency, MicroStrategy, crypto crime) and bears nothing on Bitcoin's price level or trend, and no available tool provides market data, so this is a generic base rate for a volati\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-16T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.4,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.45,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.35,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Cryptocurrency: Abingdon, Oxon New York, NY: Taylor & Francis. p. 53. ISBN 978-1-000-92384-1. \\\"Bitco\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"MicroStrategy: widely considered to be a bitcoin proxy due to Strategy&#039;s holdings of the crypto\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"Cryptocurrency and crime: \\\"Sandwell Bitcoin mine found stealing electricity\\\". BBC News. 2021-05-28. \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261103\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":52,"ts":"2026-11-10T07:30:24.689Z","slug":"will-bitcoin-dip-to-72k-november-9-15-2026","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.405,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"22127d79b3cdaa1ebba63737f871c9ae0f8a8d83c858ae59cd1111aa42c362e4","hash":"2cda3b43b98b09fb8db5a7f02f83a414be8dc7dea44a24cc46523f6fad3fed56","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T07:30:24.689Z\",\"slug\":\"will-bitcoin-dip-to-72k-november-9-15-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 November 9-15?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.405,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-16T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":51,"ts":"2026-11-10T07:10:25.922Z","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-20","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.895,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"geopolitics","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"f80a4664d5277df4e8f2c3640c33fae3f6e9c5fbb6b5c95e0e3b15c824362818","hash":"22127d79b3cdaa1ebba63737f871c9ae0f8a8d83c858ae59cd1111aa42c362e4","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T07:10:25.922Z\",\"slug\":\"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-20\",\"title\":\"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 20?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.895,\"spread\":0.05,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-21T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"geopolitics\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":50,"ts":"2026-11-10T06:15:26.164Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-759-am-et","fair_raw":0.5,"fair":0.5,"market":0.315,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"7189b35a6891d82739a2810b31dce623587128cca04e6e545cf0b29f9aa535e9","hash":"f80a4664d5277df4e8f2c3640c33fae3f6e9c5fbb6b5c95e0e3b15c824362818","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T06:15:26.164Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-759-am-et\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?\",\"fair_raw\":0.5,\"fair\":0.5,\"market\":0.315,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The three Wikipedia snippets (IShowSpeed's Rumble deal, the lapis-lazuli clip, Ludwig's broken subathon record) are historical trivia about Kai Cenat and give no information about the current GTA marathon's progress or remaining objectives, so the evidence does not bear on the de\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.55,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. 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On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":49,"ts":"2026-11-10T05:50:25.005Z","slug":"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-14","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.05,"confidence":"no-ensemble","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"2b7f18c26b1a458ae061aa289e5d2c23a5a3868da54d24d45de1ff0e9053ada8","hash":"7189b35a6891d82739a2810b31dce623587128cca04e6e545cf0b29f9aa535e9","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T05:50:25.005Z\",\"slug\":\"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-14\",\"title\":\"Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 14?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.05,\"spread\":0.02,\"confidence\":\"no-ensemble\",\"why\":\"fewer than 2 model answers\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-15T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"gdelt\":10,\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Hegseth Defies Impeachment Push , Gets Trump Backing\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"  Will never back down : Pete Hegseth defiant after Trump backing amid impeachment push\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"US Senate cannot  run out the clock  on Hegseth impeachment , warns Republican Thomas Massie\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Trump defends Hegseth against impeachment over Mark Kelly , Iran and boat strikes\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Rubio Backs Hegseth as the Vultures Circle Overhead\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Trump , 80 , Launches Unhinged Attack on Kaitlan Collins\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"AP News in Brief at 6 : 04 p . m . EST\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"  He Was Very Effective at Killing Schoolchildren : Massie Reintroduces Articles of Impeachment Agai\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Congressman Thomas Massie Files Articles of Impeachment Against Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth , \",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261110\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":48,"ts":"2026-11-10T05:40:24.566Z","slug":"will-anthropic-ipo-by-november-18-2026","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.05,"confidence":"no-ensemble","domain":"tech","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"98efaf9dde913bd0343fb6b22c940268e8d50a9566b4a233422393055d5a6786","hash":"2b7f18c26b1a458ae061aa289e5d2c23a5a3868da54d24d45de1ff0e9053ada8","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T05:40:24.566Z\",\"slug\":\"will-anthropic-ipo-by-november-18-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.05,\"spread\":0.02,\"confidence\":\"no-ensemble\",\"why\":\"fewer than 2 model answers\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-19T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"tech\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"hn\":6,\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Anthropic Seeks to Raise $69.3B via Its IPO\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Anthropic sends out, then retracts details of IPO filing, emails show\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Anthropic reportedly plans to move forward with IPO plans\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Anthropic Prepares to Push Ahead with IPO Despite Market Jitters\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"Some Memories of Early Anthropic\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"No one in the world is more suited for this position than I am\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"Initial public offering of Anthropic: Anthropic, an American artificial intelligence company, is pla\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261102\"},{\"t\":\"Anthropic: Anthropic, PBC (stylized as ANTHROP\\\\C) is an American artificial intelligence (AI) public\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Dario Amodei: assess whether the company was following its safety commitments. In Anthropic&#039;s I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":47,"ts":"2026-11-10T05:25:26.148Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-259-pm-et","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.685,"confidence":"no-ensemble","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"c235c4611ec55b3a0f4d04b89ed67ce796d84789f641fcecfab087ac562550bc","hash":"98efaf9dde913bd0343fb6b22c940268e8d50a9566b4a233422393055d5a6786","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T05:25:26.148Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-259-pm-et\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.685,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"no-ensemble\",\"why\":\"fewer than 2 model answers\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. 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Fragen, Jordan (December 19, 2023). \\\"KaiCenat, LoL, Diablo I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":46,"ts":"2026-11-10T05:20:25.193Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11","fair_raw":0.45,"fair":0.44999999999999996,"market":0.94,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"81d3356ebf41d5bbc434c6fc6a6c006c28565a794583f1bbd104586f5a44a2c9","hash":"c235c4611ec55b3a0f4d04b89ed67ce796d84789f641fcecfab087ac562550bc","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T05:20:25.193Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11?\",\"fair_raw\":0.45,\"fair\":0.44999999999999996,\"market\":0.94,\"spread\":0.02,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The evidence is unrelated Wikipedia snippets (IShowSpeed's Rumble deal, a lapis-lazuli clip, Ludwig's subathon record, 2023 Twitch charts) that mention Kai Cenat only tangentially and say nothing about the GTA marathon's progress or end date; with no bearing on the question this \",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-12T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.4,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. On Ju\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261105\"},{\"t\":\"Lapis lazuli: exclaimed that he thought he had discovered diamonds, while fellow streamer Kai Cenat \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261106\"},{\"t\":\"Ludwig Ahgren: Twitch. His record lasted until February 2023, when it was broken by Kai Cenat. On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"XQc: 19, 2023. Retrieved June 20, 2023. Fragen, Jordan (December 19, 2023). \\\"KaiCenat, LoL, Diablo I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":45,"ts":"2026-11-10T05:10:26.773Z","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.91,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"geopolitics","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"e2ddf52c690f61bde1aa2c65782142989e1c89e9c8446410e8cbf68c25b4a924","hash":"81d3356ebf41d5bbc434c6fc6a6c006c28565a794583f1bbd104586f5a44a2c9","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T05:10:26.773Z\",\"slug\":\"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22\",\"title\":\"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.91,\"spread\":0.02,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-23T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"geopolitics\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":44,"ts":"2026-11-10T05:10:26.773Z","slug":"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-22-20261108","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.595,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"geopolitics","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"11f89a49c01f6b8f25fd6b2956dab4dc89ee901a6bff7aa5a6b2854efecea802","hash":"e2ddf52c690f61bde1aa2c65782142989e1c89e9c8446410e8cbf68c25b4a924","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T05:10:26.773Z\",\"slug\":\"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-22-20261108\",\"title\":\"US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.595,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-22T20:29:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"geopolitics\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":2},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":43,"ts":"2026-11-10T05:00:25.156Z","slug":"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-21","fair_raw":0.04,"fair":0.040000000000000015,"market":0.145,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"b9da04d225ff04becb2c6dc097c55a435f6eabaf6dc66b4d6b57b7a16e5dc647","hash":"11f89a49c01f6b8f25fd6b2956dab4dc89ee901a6bff7aa5a6b2854efecea802","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T05:00:25.156Z\",\"slug\":\"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-21\",\"title\":\"Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21?\",\"fair_raw\":0.04,\"fair\":0.040000000000000015,\"market\":0.145,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"Wikipedia pages as of 2026-11-09/10 still describe Hegseth as currently serving as the 29th Secretary of Defense with no departure or successor mentioned, so the base rate for a cabinet secretary leaving within an 11-day window (~2-5%) applies with little evidence of imminent rem\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-22T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.04,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.04,\"c\":\"medium\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.03,\"c\":\"medium\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Pete Hegseth: Peter Brian Hegseth (born June 6, 1980) is an American politician, U.S. Army veteran, \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth has served as the United States secretary of defe\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"The War on Warriors: non-fiction book by later United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. In t\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261110\"}],\"probe\":{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"complement\":{\"p_no\":0.95,\"sum\":0.99,\"ok\":true},\"fake\":{\"p\":0.04,\"delta\":0,\"ok\":true}}}"},{"id":42,"ts":"2026-11-10T05:00:25.156Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-10-20261105","fair_raw":0.5,"fair":0.5,"market":0.0565,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"bebb747026216fd7b2e47b74272735f4e94506e65a9c55efd92069fa7cb4c654","hash":"b9da04d225ff04becb2c6dc097c55a435f6eabaf6dc66b4d6b57b7a16e5dc647","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T05:00:25.156Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-10-20261105\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?\",\"fair_raw\":0.5,\"fair\":0.5,\"market\":0.0565,\"spread\":0.001,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The three snippets (IShowSpeed's Rumble deal, the lapis-lazuli anecdote, Ludwig's subathon record) mention Kai Cenat but say nothing about the GTA marathon's start date, duration, or progress, so they do not bear on the question. With no relevant evidence, this sits near the base\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.55,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.4,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. On Ju\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261105\"},{\"t\":\"Lapis lazuli: exclaimed that he thought he had discovered diamonds, while fellow streamer Kai Cenat \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261106\"},{\"t\":\"Ludwig Ahgren: Twitch. His record lasted until February 2023, when it was broken by Kai Cenat. On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":41,"ts":"2026-11-10T03:30:30.247Z","slug":"will-anthropic-ipo-by-november-20-2026","fair_raw":0.62,"fair":0.62,"market":0.79,"confidence":"medium","domain":"tech","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"c7c6221ed9a3287c9adb6b8188f63547a525bd0aa07de6124745d3bed766de2b","hash":"bebb747026216fd7b2e47b74272735f4e94506e65a9c55efd92069fa7cb4c654","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T03:30:30.247Z\",\"slug\":\"will-anthropic-ipo-by-november-20-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?\",\"fair_raw\":0.62,\"fair\":0.62,\"market\":0.79,\"spread\":0.04,\"confidence\":\"medium\",\"why\":\"Active, imminent IPO process: Nov 10 reports of a filed deal seeking ~$69.3B and plans to push ahead despite market jitters make pricing within the 10-day window plausible, but the retracted filing details and jittery markets (which already delayed OpenAI's IPO) leave real slip r\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-21T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"tech\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.6,\"c\":\"medium\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.65,\"c\":\"medium\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.62,\"c\":\"medium\"}],\"sources\":{\"hn\":6,\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Anthropic Seeks to Raise $69.3B via Its IPO\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Anthropic sends out, then retracts details of IPO filing, emails show\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Anthropic reportedly plans to move forward with IPO plans\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261110\"},{\"t\":\"Anthropic Prepares to Push Ahead with IPO Despite Market Jitters\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"Some Memories of Early Anthropic\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"No one in the world is more suited for this position than I am\",\"s\":\"hn\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"Initial public offering of Anthropic: Anthropic, an American artificial intelligence company, is pla\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261102\"},{\"t\":\"Anthropic: Anthropic, PBC (stylized as ANTHROP\\\\C) is an American artificial intelligence (AI) public\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261108\"},{\"t\":\"Initial public offering of OpenAI: an IPO on June 8, 2026. It was later delayed due to a combination\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261031\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":40,"ts":"2026-11-10T01:35:25.043Z","slug":"will-ethereum-dip-to-2050-on-november-9-2026","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.053,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"5d3f9ecfde804cfea7d3718f8bb5369403530f6d8d4e3fb510887d78371bd06c","hash":"c7c6221ed9a3287c9adb6b8188f63547a525bd0aa07de6124745d3bed766de2b","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T01:35:25.043Z\",\"slug\":\"will-ethereum-dip-to-2050-on-november-9-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on November 9?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.053,\"spread\":0.032,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-10T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":39,"ts":"2026-11-10T01:30:25.804Z","slug":"will-bitcoin-reach-76k-on-november-9-2026","fair_raw":0.5,"fair":0.5,"market":0.115,"confidence":"low","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"682889ce55e891d0378ad5cbdeeae95e84572d2f472c403f4a6a657d530b0b99","hash":"5d3f9ecfde804cfea7d3718f8bb5369403530f6d8d4e3fb510887d78371bd06c","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T01:30:25.804Z\",\"slug\":\"will-bitcoin-reach-76k-on-november-9-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on November 9?\",\"fair_raw\":0.5,\"fair\":0.5,\"market\":0.115,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The only evidence is Wikipedia edit timestamps (2026-11-09, 2026-11-07, 2026-11-03) on cryptocurrency-related articles, which contain no price data and do not bear on whether Bitcoin touched $76,000 on 2026-11-09; no available dataset covers market prices. With no price evidence \",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-10T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Cryptocurrency: Abingdon, Oxon New York, NY: Taylor & Francis. p. 53. ISBN 978-1-000-92384-1. \\\"Bitco\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"MicroStrategy: widely considered to be a bitcoin proxy due to Strategy&#039;s holdings of the crypto\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"Cryptocurrency and crime: \\\"Sandwell Bitcoin mine found stealing electricity\\\". BBC News. 2021-05-28. \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261103\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":38,"ts":"2026-11-10T01:30:25.804Z","slug":"will-bitcoin-reach-76k-november-9-15-2026","fair_raw":0.45,"fair":0.44999999999999996,"market":0.805,"confidence":"low","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"45eb092b5c0d3b277809dec711789295b709bc87bfec97c892252d042293899a","hash":"682889ce55e891d0378ad5cbdeeae95e84572d2f472c403f4a6a657d530b0b99","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T01:30:25.804Z\",\"slug\":\"will-bitcoin-reach-76k-november-9-15-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 November 9-15?\",\"fair_raw\":0.45,\"fair\":0.44999999999999996,\"market\":0.805,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The cited evidence is only Wikipedia edit timestamps for Bitcoin-related articles and contains no price data, so it does not bear on whether BTC touches $76,000 this week; my tools cover fleet ops, not crypto markets, so this is a near-uninformative prior for a one-week threshold\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-16T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.45,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.45,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Cryptocurrency: Abingdon, Oxon New York, NY: Taylor & Francis. p. 53. ISBN 978-1-000-92384-1. \\\"Bitco\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"MicroStrategy: widely considered to be a bitcoin proxy due to Strategy&#039;s holdings of the crypto\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"Cryptocurrency and crime: \\\"Sandwell Bitcoin mine found stealing electricity\\\". BBC News. 2021-05-28. \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261103\"},{\"t\":\"Austrian school of economics: William J. (2016). \\\"Bitcoin and the Future of Digital Payments\\\". The I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":37,"ts":"2026-11-10T01:25:25.082Z","slug":"will-bitcoin-dip-to-72k-november-9-15-2026","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.395,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"53fb79044d580a54c5b747ba438b8e0ff7a6bb964e32eeb711acdd9e6cfb7eca","hash":"45eb092b5c0d3b277809dec711789295b709bc87bfec97c892252d042293899a","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T01:25:25.082Z\",\"slug\":\"will-bitcoin-dip-to-72k-november-9-15-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 November 9-15?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.395,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-16T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":36,"ts":"2026-11-10T00:25:24.748Z","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-15-2026","fair_raw":0.18,"fair":0.17999999999999997,"market":0.05,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"53ea70a8a412b96809436f7f475397f8664d5bc0c1d616305667728d787849a2","hash":"53fb79044d580a54c5b747ba438b8e0ff7a6bb964e32eeb711acdd9e6cfb7eca","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T00:25:24.748Z\",\"slug\":\"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-15-2026\",\"title\":\"US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?\",\"fair_raw\":0.18,\"fair\":0.17999999999999997,\"market\":0.05,\"spread\":0.002,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The blockade was still active as of 2026-11-09 (USS Spruance seized the Iranian vessel Touska), and the 14 June agreement ended the war and reopened the Strait without ending the blockade, which has persisted ~5 months since; no evidence points to an imminent US announcement with\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-16T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.2,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.12,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.18,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"2026 United States naval blockade of Iran: destroyer USS Spruance seized the Iranian-flagged vessel \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"Iran: renewed during the Islamic Golden Age and Iranian Intermezzo, a period during which Iranian Mu\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"Assassination of Ali Khamenei:  the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, as well as Iranian st\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261031\"},{\"t\":\"2026 in Iran: Chief Justice: Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje&#039;i Iranian economic crisis 2025–2026 Ira\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"}],\"probe\":{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"complement\":{\"p_no\":0.85,\"sum\":1.05,\"ok\":true},\"fake\":{\"p\":0.1,\"delta\":0.1,\"ok\":true}}}"},{"id":35,"ts":"2026-11-10T00:10:29.926Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-759-am-et","fair_raw":0.5,"fair":0.5,"market":0.365,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"08526356e14ac792cb2e44fb27c18a1693090f1217e8b7f2f2ac04abe4eda38d","hash":"53ea70a8a412b96809436f7f475397f8664d5bc0c1d616305667728d787849a2","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-10T00:10:29.926Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-759-am-et\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?\",\"fair_raw\":0.5,\"fair\":0.5,\"market\":0.365,\"spread\":0.03,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The supplied evidence (IShowSpeed/Rumble deal, a lapis-lazuli Minecraft clip, Ludwig's old subathon record) says nothing about the GTA marathon's progress or scheduled end, and my tools cover only qnfo fleet data, not streaming; with no bearing evidence this is a base-rate coin f\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.45,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. On Ju\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261105\"},{\"t\":\"Lapis lazuli: exclaimed that he thought he had discovered diamonds, while fellow streamer Kai Cenat \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261106\"},{\"t\":\"Ludwig Ahgren: Twitch. His record lasted until February 2023, when it was broken by Kai Cenat. On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":34,"ts":"2026-11-09T23:45:27.054Z","slug":"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-14","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.075,"confidence":"no-ensemble","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"24ef7904a78e129e57e23c851702e2aa0dc2c6e35c62c0fc84c3c346cba7916d","hash":"08526356e14ac792cb2e44fb27c18a1693090f1217e8b7f2f2ac04abe4eda38d","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T23:45:27.054Z\",\"slug\":\"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-14\",\"title\":\"Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 14?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.075,\"spread\":0.03,\"confidence\":\"no-ensemble\",\"why\":\"fewer than 2 model answers\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-15T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Pete Hegseth: Peter Brian Hegseth (born June 6, 1980) is an American politician, U.S. Army veteran, \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth has served as the United States secretary of defe\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"The War on Warriors: non-fiction book by later United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. In t\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261108\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":33,"ts":"2026-11-09T23:20:26.694Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-259-pm-et","fair_raw":0.475,"fair":0.4749999999999999,"market":0.58,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"31d1f615fc4daf13bd79a7f5e81255b71832143e3f2152064f5e19dcdcf083b8","hash":"24ef7904a78e129e57e23c851702e2aa0dc2c6e35c62c0fc84c3c346cba7916d","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T23:20:26.694Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-259-pm-et\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET?\",\"fair_raw\":0.475,\"fair\":0.4749999999999999,\"market\":0.58,\"spread\":0.02,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The provided evidence (IShowSpeed's Rumble deal, a lapis-lazuli anecdote, and Ludwig's 2021-2023 subathon history) does not bear on whether Kai Cenat's GTA marathon concludes by 2026-11-11 2:59 PM ET, and no available tool dataset covers streamer marathons. With no relevant signa\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.45,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. On Ju\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261105\"},{\"t\":\"Lapis lazuli: exclaimed that he thought he had discovered diamonds, while fellow streamer Kai Cenat \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261106\"},{\"t\":\"Ludwig Ahgren: Twitch. His record lasted until February 2023, when it was broken by Kai Cenat. On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":32,"ts":"2026-11-09T23:15:26.188Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11","fair_raw":0.5,"fair":0.5,"market":0.86,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"bf8c59c19fb89df3316dee53600329df4ce90ca47b5e04ac9ae19330fd7f7cab","hash":"31d1f615fc4daf13bd79a7f5e81255b71832143e3f2152064f5e19dcdcf083b8","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T23:15:26.188Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11?\",\"fair_raw\":0.5,\"fair\":0.5,\"market\":0.86,\"spread\":0.02,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The cited Wikipedia edits (IShowSpeed's Rumble deal, the lapis-lazuli Minecraft clip, Ludwig's Twitch subscriber record, xQc/StreamElements chart citations) say nothing about the GTA marathon's start date, progress, or scheduled end, so they do not bear on whether it finishes by \",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-12T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. 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Fragen, Jordan (December 19, 2023). \\\"KaiCenat, LoL, Diablo I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"complement\":{\"p_no\":0.45,\"sum\":0.95,\"ok\":true},\"fake\":{\"p\":0.5,\"delta\":0,\"ok\":true}}}"},{"id":31,"ts":"2026-11-09T23:10:25.979Z","slug":"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-22-20261108","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.525,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"geopolitics","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"dbeac074125e48ed47d319e62d69ecc8b0e02064c7ba5eb90b88988b991c5e57","hash":"bf8c59c19fb89df3316dee53600329df4ce90ca47b5e04ac9ae19330fd7f7cab","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T23:10:25.979Z\",\"slug\":\"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-22-20261108\",\"title\":\"US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.525,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-22T20:29:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"geopolitics\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":2},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":30,"ts":"2026-11-09T23:10:25.979Z","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.855,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"geopolitics","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"e683c50d9402e89cee7cdae56befb2551307704ab3f6469f27be18f408097511","hash":"dbeac074125e48ed47d319e62d69ecc8b0e02064c7ba5eb90b88988b991c5e57","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T23:10:25.979Z\",\"slug\":\"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22\",\"title\":\"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.855,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-23T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"geopolitics\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":29,"ts":"2026-11-09T23:00:24.873Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-10-20261105","fair_raw":0.5,"fair":0.5,"market":0.145,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"ccfc18c42b118536182f6062004dd6965dabeb64607b982bf13711306f13221a","hash":"e683c50d9402e89cee7cdae56befb2551307704ab3f6469f27be18f408097511","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T23:00:24.873Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-10-20261105\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?\",\"fair_raw\":0.5,\"fair\":0.5,\"market\":0.145,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"None of the cited Wikipedia snippets (IShowSpeed/Rumble, the lapis-lazuli clip, Ludwig's subathon record, xQc/Twitch charts) mention a GTA marathon, its start date, schedule, or progress, so the evidence does not bear on the outcome; with no relevant information the estimate stay\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.45,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. 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Fragen, Jordan (December 19, 2023). \\\"KaiCenat, LoL, Diablo I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":28,"ts":"2026-11-09T23:00:24.873Z","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.94,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"geopolitics","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"cbe3f58466f835658bf47f492767b12046cbf4406a2d52e2fe88ae107fc9e6b9","hash":"ccfc18c42b118536182f6062004dd6965dabeb64607b982bf13711306f13221a","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T23:00:24.873Z\",\"slug\":\"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15\",\"title\":\"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.94,\"spread\":0.02,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-16T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"geopolitics\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":27,"ts":"2026-11-09T19:25:28.544Z","slug":"will-bitcoin-reach-76k-on-november-9-2026","fair_raw":0.5,"fair":0.5,"market":0.105,"confidence":"low","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"6710cfd2acf102f28e6f6b5d623df940d0cd2d835635d5f357ef0be4fa3e0afd","hash":"cbe3f58466f835658bf47f492767b12046cbf4406a2d52e2fe88ae107fc9e6b9","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T19:25:28.544Z\",\"slug\":\"will-bitcoin-reach-76k-on-november-9-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on November 9?\",\"fair_raw\":0.5,\"fair\":0.5,\"market\":0.105,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"None of the cited evidence (Wikipedia edit citations on Bitcoin history/crime/economics and a speculative 247wallst.com two-year forecast) contains any current or recent Bitcoin price data, and my available tools provide no market data, so the evidence does not bear on whether $7\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-10T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.4,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"gdelt\":1,\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Where Will Bitcoin and Solana Be in 2 Years ? \",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"Cryptocurrency: Abingdon, Oxon New York, NY: Taylor & Francis. p. 53. ISBN 978-1-000-92384-1. \\\"Bitco\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"MicroStrategy: widely considered to be a bitcoin proxy due to Strategy&#039;s holdings of the crypto\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"Cryptocurrency and crime: \\\"Sandwell Bitcoin mine found stealing electricity\\\". BBC News. 2021-05-28. \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261103\"},{\"t\":\"Austrian school of economics: William J. (2016). \\\"Bitcoin and the Future of Digital Payments\\\". The I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":26,"ts":"2026-11-09T18:30:26.438Z","slug":"next-fable-model-5pt2-released-by-november-9-2026","fair_raw":0.12,"fair":0.12,"market":0.635,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"6ab1217b827761981e7fb7f0858e0be8431b760b240128380bd0ba23b8516ac2","hash":"6710cfd2acf102f28e6f6b5d623df940d0cd2d835635d5f357ef0be4fa3e0afd","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T18:30:26.438Z\",\"slug\":\"next-fable-model-5pt2-released-by-november-9-2026\",\"title\":\"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?\",\"fair_raw\":0.12,\"fair\":0.12,\"market\":0.635,\"spread\":0.05,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"Evidence (Wikipedia edits Nov 2–8) shows Fable 5 and Mythos 5 exist and Fable 5 was just released, with no mention of any Fable 5.2+; a next-version release within roughly a day of the current version's release is well below the base rate for minor-version model drops, so this mo\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-10T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.05,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.12,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.15,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Claude Mythos: restrictions on both Fable 5 and Mythos 5, and that access to the models would be res\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261102\"},{\"t\":\"Claude (AI): capable model named Claude Mythos was released to a handful of companies and organizati\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261108\"},{\"t\":\"Aesop's Fables: Aesop&#039;s Fables, or the Aesopica, is a collection of fables credited to Aesop, a\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":25,"ts":"2026-11-09T18:00:26.399Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-759-am-et","fair_raw":0.55,"fair":0.55,"market":0.305,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"b93cc1f5fefd284a4ce1169db63d3c302b1bc42b2f21e0dce5bd907d86b99e96","hash":"6ab1217b827761981e7fb7f0858e0be8431b760b240128380bd0ba23b8516ac2","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T18:00:26.399Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-759-am-et\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?\",\"fair_raw\":0.55,\"fair\":0.55,\"market\":0.305,\"spread\":0.03,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The evidence is tangential Wikipedia trivia (his past sub-record, the lapis lazuli meme, an IShowSpeed/Rumble deal) that says nothing about the GTA marathon's start date, progress, or pace, so this rests on the base rate: streamers like Kai Cenat typically grind until completion,\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.55,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.45,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.55,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. On Ju\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261105\"},{\"t\":\"Lapis lazuli: exclaimed that he thought he had discovered diamonds, while fellow streamer Kai Cenat \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261106\"},{\"t\":\"Ludwig Ahgren: Twitch. His record lasted until February 2023, when it was broken by Kai Cenat. On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"XQc: 19, 2023. Retrieved June 20, 2023. Fragen, Jordan (December 19, 2023). \\\"KaiCenat, LoL, Diablo I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":24,"ts":"2026-11-09T17:45:26.955Z","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-15-2026","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.05,"confidence":"no-ensemble","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"61cbd82b939f9056e7bc58acde1c9bf83e59923e96ffcd067a1f4279690439f1","hash":"b93cc1f5fefd284a4ce1169db63d3c302b1bc42b2f21e0dce5bd907d86b99e96","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T17:45:26.955Z\",\"slug\":\"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-15-2026\",\"title\":\"US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.05,\"spread\":0.006,\"confidence\":\"no-ensemble\",\"why\":\"fewer than 2 model answers\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-16T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"2026 Iran war: petrochemical plant in Iran, leading to a retaliatory Iranian attack on Haifa. Two Ir\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"Iran: renewed during the Islamic Golden Age and Iranian Intermezzo, a period during which Iranian Mu\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261108\"},{\"t\":\"Assassination of Ali Khamenei:  the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, as well as Iranian st\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261031\"},{\"t\":\"2026 in Iran: Chief Justice: Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje&#039;i Iranian economic crisis 2025–2026 Ira\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":23,"ts":"2026-11-09T17:40:28.552Z","slug":"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-14","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.12,"confidence":"no-ensemble","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"76653bad638d107c73ce16139fcc27d03413b0995eadf93811b97743446ca575","hash":"61cbd82b939f9056e7bc58acde1c9bf83e59923e96ffcd067a1f4279690439f1","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T17:40:28.552Z\",\"slug\":\"pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-14\",\"title\":\"Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 14?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.12,\"spread\":0.02,\"confidence\":\"no-ensemble\",\"why\":\"fewer than 2 model answers\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-15T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Pete Hegseth: Peter Brian Hegseth (born June 6, 1980) is an American politician, U.S. Army veteran, \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth has served as the United States secretary of defe\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261103\"},{\"t\":\"Brett Sylvia: CBS News and The Hill that Sylvia was removed by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth aft\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261103\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":22,"ts":"2026-11-09T17:20:26.307Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-259-pm-et","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.635,"confidence":"no-ensemble","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"d6f6000d9841fea79e0a7c26acf98076f5d77c2aeb0a3e925c77f88b92fe6432","hash":"76653bad638d107c73ce16139fcc27d03413b0995eadf93811b97743446ca575","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T17:20:26.307Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-259-pm-et\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.635,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"no-ensemble\",\"why\":\"fewer than 2 model answers\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. On Ju\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261105\"},{\"t\":\"Lapis lazuli: exclaimed that he thought he had discovered diamonds, while fellow streamer Kai Cenat \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261106\"},{\"t\":\"Ludwig Ahgren: Twitch. His record lasted until February 2023, when it was broken by Kai Cenat. On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"XQc: 19, 2023. Retrieved June 20, 2023. Fragen, Jordan (December 19, 2023). \\\"KaiCenat, LoL, Diablo I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":21,"ts":"2026-11-09T17:10:27.422Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.9,"confidence":"no-ensemble","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"0c3824628ab3fe4fd26ff7517b6ee0bbdb8c3ae77ca825cefc6316296d055bd1","hash":"d6f6000d9841fea79e0a7c26acf98076f5d77c2aeb0a3e925c77f88b92fe6432","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T17:10:27.422Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.9,\"spread\":0.02,\"confidence\":\"no-ensemble\",\"why\":\"fewer than 2 model answers\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-12T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. On Ju\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261105\"},{\"t\":\"Lapis lazuli: exclaimed that he thought he had discovered diamonds, while fellow streamer Kai Cenat \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261106\"},{\"t\":\"Ludwig Ahgren: Twitch. His record lasted until February 2023, when it was broken by Kai Cenat. On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"XQc: 19, 2023. Retrieved June 20, 2023. Fragen, Jordan (December 19, 2023). \\\"KaiCenat, LoL, Diablo I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":20,"ts":"2026-11-09T17:05:28.830Z","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22","fair_raw":0.55,"fair":0.55,"market":0.85,"confidence":"low","domain":"geopolitics","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"38873ad5b462c71b64aec8ed141c2d98ff9e3919d4e1ea24fd347b238587f96d","hash":"0c3824628ab3fe4fd26ff7517b6ee0bbdb8c3ae77ca825cefc6316296d055bd1","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T17:05:28.830Z\",\"slug\":\"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22\",\"title\":\"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?\",\"fair_raw\":0.55,\"fair\":0.55,\"market\":0.85,\"spread\":0.02,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"A two-week Pakistan-mediated ceasefire was in place as of the 2026-10-26 edit, which would expire around Nov 9 unless extended, and Iran's rejection of the longer 45-day deal signals fragility; the newest evidence (2026-11-08) reports no breakdown but does not confirm the ceasefi\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-23T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"geopolitics\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.6,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.38,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.55,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"2026 Iran war ceasefire: Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakis\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261026\"},{\"t\":\"2026 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire: The 2026 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire is a cessation of hostilities agree\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261026\"},{\"t\":\"Middle Eastern crisis (2023–present): US–Houthi ceasefire in May, after which Israel and the Houthis\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261108\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":19,"ts":"2026-11-09T17:05:28.830Z","slug":"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-22-20261108","fair_raw":0.27,"fair":0.27,"market":0.525,"confidence":"low","domain":"geopolitics","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"4190b114d465a4ad48e46fa1ee2e5ad007de5dbdc04464ad98069c06e3ed6e6f","hash":"38873ad5b462c71b64aec8ed141c2d98ff9e3919d4e1ea24fd347b238587f96d","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T17:05:28.830Z\",\"slug\":\"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-22-20261108\",\"title\":\"US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?\",\"fair_raw\":0.27,\"fair\":0.27,\"market\":0.525,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"Active mediation (Qatar Nov 7, Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire) gives some chance, but the most recent evidence (Nov 4) says the US–Iran ceasefire broke after Iranian attacks on Hormuz shipping, and short-window ceasefires in active wars more often fail than hold; evidence i\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-22T20:29:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"geopolitics\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.25,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.3,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.27,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"gdelt\":1,\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Qatar says its mediation efforts between US and Iran continue to prevent escalation\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"2026 Iran war ceasefire: Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakis\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261026\"},{\"t\":\"2026 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire: Lebanon, and over one million had been displaced. Prior ceasefire arr\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261026\"},{\"t\":\"2025–2026 Iran–United States negotiations: the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran broke aft\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261104\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":18,"ts":"2026-11-09T17:00:25.157Z","slug":"will-bitcoin-reach-77k-on-november-9-2026","fair_raw":0.45,"fair":0.44999999999999996,"market":0.085,"confidence":"low","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"f39f718d25837b8a5f94f952b3899de594ee749b5c1fc91809d90d6a7695add1","hash":"4190b114d465a4ad48e46fa1ee2e5ad007de5dbdc04464ad98069c06e3ed6e6f","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T17:00:25.157Z\",\"slug\":\"will-bitcoin-reach-77k-on-november-9-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on November 9?\",\"fair_raw\":0.45,\"fair\":0.44999999999999996,\"market\":0.085,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The three evidence items are stale Wikipedia citation/edit metadata (2014 and 2021 BBC citations, last edits 2026-11-03 to 2026-11-09) containing no Bitcoin price or market data, and my available tools cover fleet operations, not cryptocurrency prices, so they cannot bear on whet\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-10T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.45,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.45,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Cryptocurrency: Abingdon, Oxon New York, NY: Taylor & Francis. p. 53. ISBN 978-1-000-92384-1. \\\"Bitco\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"MicroStrategy: widely considered to be a bitcoin proxy due to Strategy&#039;s holdings of the crypto\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"Cryptocurrency and crime: \\\"Sandwell Bitcoin mine found stealing electricity\\\". BBC News. 2021-05-28. \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261103\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":17,"ts":"2026-11-09T16:55:30.614Z","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15","fair_raw":0.55,"fair":0.55,"market":0.935,"confidence":"low","domain":"geopolitics","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"9f0876117b2cd338e89ba736d0c21eb62c52004cce9f213b124dca703c96d939","hash":"f39f718d25837b8a5f94f952b3899de594ee749b5c1fc91809d90d6a7695add1","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T16:55:30.614Z\",\"slug\":\"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15\",\"title\":\"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?\",\"fair_raw\":0.55,\"fair\":0.55,\"market\":0.935,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The only direct evidence is a two-week Israel–Iran ceasefire mediated by Pakistan (reported ~2026-10-26), which would expire around Nov 9, so continuing through Nov 15 hinges on an extension; short truces in this conflict extend roughly as often as they lapse, and the sources giv\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-16T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"geopolitics\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.55,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.6,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.55,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"2026 Iran war ceasefire: Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakis\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261026\"},{\"t\":\"2026 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire: The 2026 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire is a cessation of hostilities agree\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261026\"},{\"t\":\"Middle Eastern crisis (2023–present): US–Houthi ceasefire in May, after which Israel and the Houthis\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261108\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":16,"ts":"2026-11-09T16:55:30.614Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-10-20261105","fair_raw":0.5,"fair":0.5,"market":0.21,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"05c82d68dfde6d6a421e483fa5a647b619f2a0b2d5c47adf22ca3a9a0c0796d5","hash":"9f0876117b2cd338e89ba736d0c21eb62c52004cce9f213b124dca703c96d939","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T16:55:30.614Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-10-20261105\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?\",\"fair_raw\":0.5,\"fair\":0.5,\"market\":0.21,\"spread\":0.02,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The supplied evidence (Wikipedia edits on IShowSpeed, Lapis lazuli, Ludwig Ahgren, xQc) contains nothing about a GTA marathon, its start date, or its progress, so it does not bear on the outcome. With no relevant evidence, this sits at the uninformative base rate, and my fleet to\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. On Ju\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261105\"},{\"t\":\"Lapis lazuli: exclaimed that he thought he had discovered diamonds, while fellow streamer Kai Cenat \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261106\"},{\"t\":\"Ludwig Ahgren: Twitch. His record lasted until February 2023, when it was broken by Kai Cenat. On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"XQc: 19, 2023. Retrieved June 20, 2023. Fragen, Jordan (December 19, 2023). \\\"KaiCenat, LoL, Diablo I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":15,"ts":"2026-11-09T16:30:29.204Z","slug":"will-bitcoin-dip-to-72k-on-november-9-2026","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.055,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"f45f08449a3a2e7686c01784a36a5c5708306e5fa24480cefb2267726d16d2b1","hash":"05c82d68dfde6d6a421e483fa5a647b619f2a0b2d5c47adf22ca3a9a0c0796d5","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T16:30:29.204Z\",\"slug\":\"will-bitcoin-dip-to-72k-on-november-9-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on November 9?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.055,\"spread\":0.006,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-10T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":14,"ts":"2026-11-09T15:45:25.304Z","slug":"will-bitcoin-dip-to-73k-on-november-9-2026","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.075,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"5a1205df9dc39a949077724e6c181a4a26eb248d9bb3caeea4104938ba6ce72d","hash":"f45f08449a3a2e7686c01784a36a5c5708306e5fa24480cefb2267726d16d2b1","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T15:45:25.304Z\",\"slug\":\"will-bitcoin-dip-to-73k-on-november-9-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on November 9?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.075,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-10T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":13,"ts":"2026-11-09T13:25:26.742Z","slug":"will-bitcoin-dip-to-71k-on-november-9-2026","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.0505,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"2ad4bad873567fe09a1d4e150194d639c1e3e6b53420fe82d41a89bbe165320c","hash":"5a1205df9dc39a949077724e6c181a4a26eb248d9bb3caeea4104938ba6ce72d","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T13:25:26.742Z\",\"slug\":\"will-bitcoin-dip-to-71k-on-november-9-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on November 9?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.0505,\"spread\":0.009,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-10T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":12,"ts":"2026-11-09T13:20:26.753Z","slug":"will-bitcoin-reach-76k-on-november-9-2026","fair_raw":0.5,"fair":0.5,"market":0.295,"confidence":"low","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"baff58dbf6339dbe3bbbaaeef2c4615fa7da2e251c83fae1518a1495ba1d2ca4","hash":"2ad4bad873567fe09a1d4e150194d639c1e3e6b53420fe82d41a89bbe165320c","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T13:20:26.753Z\",\"slug\":\"will-bitcoin-reach-76k-on-november-9-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on November 9?\",\"fair_raw\":0.5,\"fair\":0.5,\"market\":0.295,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The three evidence items (Wikipedia edits on 'Bitcoin not a currency says Japan government', the Sandwell electricity-theft mine, and MicroStrategy's bitcoin-proxy status, last edited 2026-11-03 to 2026-11-08) contain no Bitcoin price, market, or threshold data, so they do not be\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-10T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Cryptocurrency: Abingdon, Oxon New York, NY: Taylor & Francis. p. 53. ISBN 978-1-000-92384-1. \\\"Bitco\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261108\"},{\"t\":\"Cryptocurrency and crime: \\\"Sandwell Bitcoin mine found stealing electricity\\\". BBC News. 2021-05-28. \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261103\"},{\"t\":\"MicroStrategy: widely considered to be a bitcoin proxy due to Strategy&#039;s holdings of the crypto\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":11,"ts":"2026-11-09T11:25:25.881Z","slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-15-2026","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.0605,"confidence":"no-ensemble","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"0f5978b49fd74afe951e03f4eb01f56c6b7e6f43fef7adc128cae6800ab4d74b","hash":"baff58dbf6339dbe3bbbaaeef2c4615fa7da2e251c83fae1518a1495ba1d2ca4","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T11:25:25.881Z\",\"slug\":\"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-15-2026\",\"title\":\"US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.0605,\"spread\":0.007,\"confidence\":\"no-ensemble\",\"why\":\"fewer than 2 model answers\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-16T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"2026 Iran war: petrochemical plant in Iran, leading to a retaliatory Iranian attack on Haifa. Two Ir\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"},{\"t\":\"Iran: renewed during the Islamic Golden Age and Iranian Intermezzo, a period during which Iranian Mu\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261108\"},{\"t\":\"Assassination of Ali Khamenei:  the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, as well as Iranian st\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261031\"},{\"t\":\"2026 United States naval blockade of Iran: destroyer USS Spruance seized the Iranian-flagged vessel \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261109\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":10,"ts":"2026-11-09T11:15:26.585Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-259-pm-et","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.305,"confidence":"no-ensemble","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"cd5141a58199e9a256ce972b45238e71ba942e3cbfb3b8415ec7229b3c62f124","hash":"0f5978b49fd74afe951e03f4eb01f56c6b7e6f43fef7adc128cae6800ab4d74b","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T11:15:26.585Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11-259-pm-et\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.305,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"no-ensemble\",\"why\":\"fewer than 2 model answers\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. On Ju\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261105\"},{\"t\":\"Lapis lazuli: exclaimed that he thought he had discovered diamonds, while fellow streamer Kai Cenat \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261106\"},{\"t\":\"Ludwig Ahgren: Twitch. His record lasted until February 2023, when it was broken by Kai Cenat. On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"XQc: 19, 2023. Retrieved June 20, 2023. Fragen, Jordan (December 19, 2023). \\\"KaiCenat, LoL, Diablo I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":9,"ts":"2026-11-09T11:10:27.292Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.625,"confidence":"no-ensemble","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"36456c57e90ee79d16c6afc23a0d0fbbb1cd5accf90106da0857d2305fec45ae","hash":"cd5141a58199e9a256ce972b45238e71ba942e3cbfb3b8415ec7229b3c62f124","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T11:10:27.292Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-11\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.625,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"no-ensemble\",\"why\":\"fewer than 2 model answers\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-12T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. On Ju\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261105\"},{\"t\":\"Lapis lazuli: exclaimed that he thought he had discovered diamonds, while fellow streamer Kai Cenat \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261106\"},{\"t\":\"Ludwig Ahgren: Twitch. His record lasted until February 2023, when it was broken by Kai Cenat. On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"XQc: 19, 2023. Retrieved June 20, 2023. Fragen, Jordan (December 19, 2023). \\\"KaiCenat, LoL, Diablo I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":8,"ts":"2026-11-09T11:05:25.029Z","slug":"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-22-20261108","fair_raw":0.25,"fair":0.25,"market":0.505,"confidence":"low","domain":"geopolitics","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"c75e4d251eed6fe37ffa8e6c5405b17921213c449b6652d4a9b60fa3170daf44","hash":"36456c57e90ee79d16c6afc23a0d0fbbb1cd5accf90106da0857d2305fec45ae","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T11:05:25.029Z\",\"slug\":\"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-22-20261108\",\"title\":\"US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?\",\"fair_raw\":0.25,\"fair\":0.25,\"market\":0.505,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The most recent evidence (2026-11-04) says the US-Iran ceasefire broke after Iran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and the two-week Pakistan-mediated ceasefire agreed around 2026-10-26 expires right about now, so an effective US-Iran ceasefire would need to be\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-22T20:29:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"geopolitics\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.25,\"c\":\"medium\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.2,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.3,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"2026 Iran war ceasefire: Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakis\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261026\"},{\"t\":\"2026 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire: Lebanon, and over one million had been displaced. Prior ceasefire arr\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261026\"},{\"t\":\"2025–2026 Iran–United States negotiations: the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran broke aft\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261104\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":7,"ts":"2026-11-09T11:00:28.040Z","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22","fair_raw":0.45,"fair":0.44999999999999996,"market":0.845,"confidence":"low","domain":"geopolitics","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"124169ae79ab3cdfc87042ae1b31105a7bb4ae113815f53346534ed176987a25","hash":"c75e4d251eed6fe37ffa8e6c5405b17921213c449b6652d4a9b60fa3170daf44","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T11:00:28.040Z\",\"slug\":\"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-22\",\"title\":\"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?\",\"fair_raw\":0.45,\"fair\":0.44999999999999996,\"market\":0.845,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The two-week Israel–Iran ceasefire (Pakistan-mediated, ~Oct 26) expires around Nov 9, so holding through Nov 22 requires an extension or de facto continuation; Iran's rejection of the 45-day two-phase draft and ongoing regional hostilities (Lebanon war, Israel–Houthi exchanges pe\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-23T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"geopolitics\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.45,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.55,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.3,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"2026 Iran war ceasefire: Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakis\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261026\"},{\"t\":\"2026 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire: The 2026 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire is a cessation of hostilities agree\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261026\"},{\"t\":\"Middle Eastern crisis (2023–present): US–Houthi ceasefire in May, after which Israel and the Houthis\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261108\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":6,"ts":"2026-11-09T11:00:28.040Z","slug":"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-15-20261108","fair_raw":0.2,"fair":0.2,"market":0.415,"confidence":"medium","domain":"geopolitics","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"0ed4d89dc28bf32c3314105d258057a13d4aebeb053af0b99552c9e6f02346e7","hash":"124169ae79ab3cdfc87042ae1b31105a7bb4ae113815f53346534ed176987a25","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T11:00:28.040Z\",\"slug\":\"us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-15-20261108\",\"title\":\"US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?\",\"fair_raw\":0.2,\"fair\":0.2,\"market\":0.415,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"medium\",\"why\":\"The newest evidence (2026-11-04) says the US–Iran ceasefire broke after Iran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Pakistan-mediated two-week ceasefire agreed around late October appears already violated; re-establishing an effective ceasefire within the ~6\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-15T20:29:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"geopolitics\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.2,\"c\":\"medium\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.18,\"c\":\"medium\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.2,\"c\":\"medium\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"2026 Iran war ceasefire: Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakis\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261026\"},{\"t\":\"2025–2026 Iran–United States negotiations: the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran broke aft\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261104\"},{\"t\":\"2026 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire: Lebanon, and over one million had been displaced. Prior ceasefire arr\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261026\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":5,"ts":"2026-11-09T10:55:26.972Z","slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15","fair_raw":0.6,"fair":0.6,"market":0.925,"confidence":"low","domain":"geopolitics","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"f50f23b16c627246ab2bacc54a574b2368114bb69a3a4621e273a026e5d57ab8","hash":"0ed4d89dc28bf32c3314105d258057a13d4aebeb053af0b99552c9e6f02346e7","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T10:55:26.972Z\",\"slug\":\"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15\",\"title\":\"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?\",\"fair_raw\":0.6,\"fair\":0.6,\"market\":0.925,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The only direct evidence is the Pakistan-mediated two-week Israel–Iran ceasefire (Wikipedia, edited 2026-10-26), which by its two-week term would be at or near expiry right in the Nov 9–15 window, and Iran's rejection of the 45-day two-phase deal signals willingness to resume — b\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-16T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"geopolitics\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.6,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.68,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.6,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"gdelt\":1,\"wiki\":3},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"Blue landslide in US gives SA hope but Trump still has sharp teeth\",\"s\":\"gdelt\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"2026 Iran war ceasefire: Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakis\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261026\"},{\"t\":\"2026 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire: The 2026 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire is a cessation of hostilities agree\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261026\"},{\"t\":\"Middle Eastern crisis (2023–present): US–Houthi ceasefire in May, after which Israel and the Houthis\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261108\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":4,"ts":"2026-11-09T10:55:26.972Z","slug":"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-10-20261105","fair_raw":0.45,"fair":0.44999999999999996,"market":0.095,"confidence":"low","domain":"other","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"46f0ca8ce54cda1fc37712018b824311d9360768556c58266195ce2ce3be3f1c","hash":"f50f23b16c627246ab2bacc54a574b2368114bb69a3a4621e273a026e5d57ab8","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T10:55:26.972Z\",\"slug\":\"will-kai-cenat-finish-his-gta-marathon-by-november-10-20261105\",\"title\":\"Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?\",\"fair_raw\":0.45,\"fair\":0.44999999999999996,\"market\":0.095,\"spread\":0.01,\"confidence\":\"low\",\"why\":\"The cited evidence (IShowSpeed's Rumble deal, the lapis lazuli clip, Ludwig's and xQc's Wikipedia edits) says nothing about the start, length, or progress of Kai Cenat's GTA marathon, so it does not bear on the question. With no relevant data, this sits near the base rate for mar\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-11T04:59:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"other\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[{\"model\":\"glm-5.3-flash\",\"p\":0.45,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"kimi-k2.6\",\"p\":0.5,\"c\":\"low\"},{\"model\":\"gpt-oss-120b\",\"p\":0.45,\"c\":\"low\"}],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":4},\"evidence\":[{\"t\":\"IShowSpeed: exclusive streaming deal with the platform Rumble in collaboration with Kai Cenat. On Ju\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261105\"},{\"t\":\"Lapis lazuli: exclaimed that he thought he had discovered diamonds, while fellow streamer Kai Cenat \",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261106\"},{\"t\":\"Ludwig Ahgren: Twitch. His record lasted until February 2023, when it was broken by Kai Cenat. On No\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"},{\"t\":\"XQc: 19, 2023. Retrieved June 20, 2023. Fragen, Jordan (December 19, 2023). \\\"KaiCenat, LoL, Diablo I\",\"s\":\"wiki\",\"d\":\"20261107\"}],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":3,"ts":"2026-11-09T09:40:26.254Z","slug":"will-bitcoin-dip-to-72k-on-november-9-2026","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.17,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"b75678b7a3bf6e1ff6cd4de4386d67946191d7f094e3390d960ab8a1298b5a81","hash":"46f0ca8ce54cda1fc37712018b824311d9360768556c58266195ce2ce3be3f1c","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T09:40:26.254Z\",\"slug\":\"will-bitcoin-dip-to-72k-on-november-9-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on November 9?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.17,\"spread\":0.02,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-10T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[],\"probe\":null}"},{"id":2,"ts":"2026-11-09T07:10:25.948Z","slug":"will-bitcoin-dip-to-71k-on-november-9-2026","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.1035,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"9c93bc846b5199797fe1702c7909f5750d3c6bbc1570b54401ac3912e50b5408","hash":"b75678b7a3bf6e1ff6cd4de4386d67946191d7f094e3390d960ab8a1298b5a81","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T07:10:25.948Z\",\"slug\":\"will-bitcoin-dip-to-71k-on-november-9-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on November 9?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.1035,\"spread\":0.011,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-10T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[]}"},{"id":1,"ts":"2026-11-09T07:05:26.240Z","slug":"will-bitcoin-dip-to-70k-on-november-9-2026","fair_raw":null,"fair":null,"market":0.0535,"confidence":"no-evidence","domain":"crypto","params_version":1,"prev_hash":"","hash":"9c93bc846b5199797fe1702c7909f5750d3c6bbc1570b54401ac3912e50b5408","core":"{\"ts\":\"2026-11-09T07:05:26.240Z\",\"slug\":\"will-bitcoin-dip-to-70k-on-november-9-2026\",\"title\":\"Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on November 9?\",\"fair_raw\":null,\"fair\":null,\"market\":0.0535,\"spread\":0.011,\"confidence\":\"no-evidence\",\"why\":\"fewer than 3 pieces of recent evidence\",\"ends_at\":\"2026-11-10T05:00:00.000Z\",\"domain\":\"crypto\",\"params_version\":1,\"recal\":[1,0],\"blend_w\":0.5,\"models\":[],\"sources\":{\"wiki\":1},\"evidence\":[]}"}]}