US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?
q08 says 52%; the market says 52%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-11-22.
Multiple senior US officials (Trump, Rubio, Vance) explicitly declare the Iran war 'effectively over' and redirect resources, which strongly suggests an effective ceasefire is already in place or imminent, making the 52% crowd probability appear underpriced.
What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Any official joint statement or UN ceasefire resolution before Nov 22.
Financial market: Brent crude oil 107.03 $/bbl on 2026-11-03. Typical daily move 12.275 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-12 13:15 UTC, ledger hash f82f5a67bea83532, before the event.
- Updated in the open9 entries, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-12 22:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-11-22. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Markets that reprice with it
| Question | Yes | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | 94.6% | $372,077 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 7.5% | $257,007 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | 8.5% | $202,306 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | 7.5% | $183,633 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? | 85.5% | $152,746 |
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 Oil prices fall to lowest since August as Trump says Iran war is ‘effectively over’ rss, 2026-11-12
- E2 Trump says no deal needed on Iran war and orders Vance to focus on domestic issues rss, 2026-11-12
- E3 Rubio Says ‘Major Combat Operations’ in Iran War Are No Longer Needed rss, 2026-11-12
- E4 No Good Choices on Iran rss, 2026-11-12
- E5 Son of Iran's shah receives 'Freedom Prize' in Frankfurt rss, 2026-11-12
- E6 Federal Reserve Board announces pricing, effective January 1, 2027, for payment services the Federal Reserve Banks provide to banks and credit unions, and changes to streamline and adjust their check services rss, 2026-11-12
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift 1.5 citing E1, E2, E3
Every pre-registered entry (9)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 22:15 1 new signal | 52% | 52% | 9533dfb552e9 |
| 2026-11-12 20:15 3 new signals | 51% | 51% | 07bfce7163f2 |
| 2026-11-12 19:15 2 new signals | 51.5% | 51.5% | 6acf09bca240 |
| 2026-11-12 18:15 1 new signal | 54% | 54% | 07d3db69d269 |
| 2026-11-12 17:15 2 new signals | 63.5% | 63.5% | 0e7025f5ecf4 |
| 2026-11-12 16:15 3 new signals | 63.5% | 63.5% | 742c4a5c7e38 |
| 2026-11-12 15:15 3 new signals | 63.5% | 63.5% | cf352aeff6fa |
| 2026-11-12 14:15 1 new signal | 63.5% | 63.5% | abc680f40aea |
| 2026-11-12 13:15 first forecast | 66.9% | 63.5% | f82f5a67bea8 |