The ledger
Every forecast is written here before its event, chained by hash to the one before, and scored when the event settles. Wrong calls stay. The chain was checked intact on this visit: 67 of 67 entries recompute.
Pre-registered entries
67
Settled: right / wrong side
0 / 0
Beat the market / did worse
0 / 0
Settled calls, misses first
Nothing has settled yetThe first verdict appears here the hour its market closes, right or wrong.
Latest entries
| When (UTC) | Question | q08 / market | Hash ← previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 00:15 | Iran leadership change by November 30? | 2.3% / 2.3% | f16aa7b681 ← cbfd47bde0 |
| 2026-11-13 00:15 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | 1.7% / 1.7% | cbfd47bde0 ← e74761f2bb |
| 2026-11-13 00:15 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | 2.5% / 2.5% | e74761f2bb ← cb3d087050 |
| 2026-11-13 00:15 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | 4.5% / 4.5% | cb3d087050 ← e08efd5e21 |
| 2026-11-13 00:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? | 85.5% / 85.5% | e08efd5e21 ← 19d738035f |
| 2026-11-12 23:15 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 2.8% / 2.8% | 19d738035f ← 8a5c7683c5 |
| 2026-11-12 23:15 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | 1.4% / 1.4% | 8a5c7683c5 ← 342272fc53 |
| 2026-11-12 23:15 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | 4.5% / 4.5% | 342272fc53 ← d8963f3a0c |
| 2026-11-12 23:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 71.6% / 64.5% | d8963f3a0c ← 6b7520d5d2 |
| 2026-11-12 23:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15? | 43% / 43% | 6b7520d5d2 ← b6ab4c21bb |
| 2026-11-12 22:15 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | 4.5% / 4.5% | b6ab4c21bb ← 11449a838d |
| 2026-11-12 22:15 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | 7.5% / 7.5% | 11449a838d ← a22380175e |
| 2026-11-12 22:15 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 7.5% / 7.5% | a22380175e ← 1c07092112 |
| 2026-11-12 22:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 77% / 77% | 1c07092112 ← 9533dfb552 |
| 2026-11-12 22:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22? | 52% / 52% | 9533dfb552 ← 8577d3becc |
| 2026-11-12 21:15 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | 1.6% / 1.6% | 8577d3becc ← 9217d77709 |
| 2026-11-12 21:15 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | 7% / 7% | 9217d77709 ← ba2587684f |
| 2026-11-12 21:15 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 27.7% / 27.7% | ba2587684f ← bcd03cc0ff |
| 2026-11-12 21:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15? | 42.5% / 42.5% | bcd03cc0ff ← 3f53c07fef |
| 2026-11-12 21:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 56.5% / 56.5% | 3f53c07fef ← 5d572f04c9 |
| 2026-11-12 20:15 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | 3.7% / 7.5% | 5d572f04c9 ← 52ff0e77c9 |
| 2026-11-12 20:15 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | 8.5% / 8.5% | 52ff0e77c9 ← 6934160a54 |
| 2026-11-12 20:15 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 8.5% / 8.5% | 6934160a54 ← 89ddbaa8fb |
| 2026-11-12 20:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 77.5% / 77.5% | 89ddbaa8fb ← 07bfce7163 |
| 2026-11-12 20:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22? | 51% / 51% | 07bfce7163 ← 0419f55ada |
| 2026-11-12 19:15 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | 9.5% / 9.5% | 0419f55ada ← a04cf13f79 |
| 2026-11-12 19:15 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 8.5% / 8.5% | a04cf13f79 ← 5bdc39995b |
| 2026-11-12 19:15 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026? | 96.1% / 96.1% | 5bdc39995b ← 03f8065326 |
| 2026-11-12 19:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 77% / 77% | 03f8065326 ← 6acf09bca2 |
| 2026-11-12 19:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22? | 51.5% / 51.5% | 6acf09bca2 ← cad06898b1 |
| 2026-11-12 18:15 | Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026? | 69.9% / 69.9% | cad06898b1 ← 37bc4bde91 |
| 2026-11-12 18:15 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | 95.9% / 95.9% | 37bc4bde91 ← bc821dd598 |
| 2026-11-12 18:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 79% / 79% | bc821dd598 ← f43f720f6a |
| 2026-11-12 18:15 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 30.4% / 30.4% | f43f720f6a ← 07d3db69d2 |
| 2026-11-12 18:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22? | 54% / 54% | 07d3db69d2 ← 50ce2bbbd2 |
| 2026-11-12 17:15 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 7.5% / 7.5% | 50ce2bbbd2 ← 0c8d24a1d4 |
| 2026-11-12 17:15 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | 96.8% / 96.8% | 0c8d24a1d4 ← b5604e7024 |
| 2026-11-12 17:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 82.5% / 82.5% | b5604e7024 ← 0e7025f5ec |
| 2026-11-12 17:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22? | 63.5% / 63.5% | 0e7025f5ec ← fcfed67ccd |
| 2026-11-12 17:15 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 35.6% / 35.6% | fcfed67ccd ← ceaa942681 |
| 2026-11-12 16:15 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 7.5% / 7.5% | ceaa942681 ← 7b6fcf5e91 |
| 2026-11-12 16:15 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | 9.5% / 9.5% | 7b6fcf5e91 ← 67b20f5eca |
| 2026-11-12 16:15 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | 95.3% / 95.3% | 67b20f5eca ← bc46b9d7e5 |
| 2026-11-12 16:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 82% / 82% | bc46b9d7e5 ← 742c4a5c7e |
| 2026-11-12 16:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22? | 63.5% / 63.5% | 742c4a5c7e ← 043b210151 |
| 2026-11-12 15:15 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | 16% / 16% | 043b210151 ← e71b3d3dcf |
| 2026-11-12 15:15 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | 19.5% / 19.5% | e71b3d3dcf ← 6ac585d522 |
| 2026-11-12 15:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 74.5% / 74.5% | 6ac585d522 ← cf352aeff6 |
| 2026-11-12 15:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22? | 63.5% / 63.5% | cf352aeff6 ← abc680f40a |
| 2026-11-12 14:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22? | 63.5% / 63.5% | abc680f40a ← b7a947b255 |
| 2026-11-12 14:15 | Iran leadership change by November 30? | 2.3% / 2.3% | b7a947b255 ← 0a5cf875c7 |
| 2026-11-12 14:15 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? | 28.5% / 28.5% | 0a5cf875c7 ← 2d0fc86665 |
| 2026-11-12 14:15 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 12.5% / 12.5% | 2d0fc86665 ← f82f5a67be |
| 2026-11-12 13:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22? | 66.9% / 63.5% | f82f5a67be ← d4bca24c87 |
| 2026-11-12 13:15 | Iran leadership change by November 30? | 2.3% / 2.3% | d4bca24c87 ← 644ef244b1 |
| 2026-11-12 13:15 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 12.5% / 12.5% | 644ef244b1 ← 7c3f8eb9d6 |
| 2026-11-12 13:15 | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31? | 57.5% / 46.9% | 7c3f8eb9d6 ← 82a7b225f9 |
| 2026-11-12 12:15 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | 42.5% / 42.5% | 82a7b225f9 ← 0c9828e947 |
| 2026-11-12 12:15 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | 9.5% / 9.5% | 0c9828e947 ← eb44b6685e |
| 2026-11-12 12:15 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | 92% / 92% | eb44b6685e ← 575d107807 |
Check it yourself
Each hash is sha256(JSON.stringify([created_at, slug, prior, p, evidence urls in order, prev_hash or ""])). Download every entry from /api/ledger, recompute, and compare. Each broadcast post carries the first 12 characters of its entry's hash, so a third party holds a timestamped copy.