Iran leadership change by December 31?
q08 says 6.5%; the market says 6.5%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-12-31.
q08 forecast
6.5%
Market (coherent)
6.5%
Simulated P&L
no position
What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Any official announcement from Iran's Supreme Leader or state media about succession or political restructuring.
Financial market: Brent crude oil 92.14 $/bbl on 2026-11-11. Typical daily move 11.964 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-13 22:15 UTC, ledger hash 06525f0f9493e7d0, before the event.
- Updated in the open4 entries, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-14 15:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-12-31. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Markets that reprice with it
| Question | Yes | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | 98.5% | $311,178 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8? | 25.5% | $88,301 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 68.5% | $60,112 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 7.5% | $57,327 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 86.5% | $56,433 |
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 'F the Iranian leadership,' says Treasury Sec. Bessent on Iran threat demand, 2026-11-13
- E2 How does Iran view shift in US approach after JD Vance ordered away? rss, 2026-11-14
- E3 Iran says three tankers hit naval mines in Strait of Hormuz demand, 2026-11-14
- E4 Iran says oil tanker on fire after naval mine strike in eastern Strait of Hormuz demand, 2026-11-14
- E5 Oil tanker on fire in Hormuz after hitting mine, Iran’s navy says demand, 2026-11-14
- E6 Iran’s Navy Says Oil Tanker on Fire After Hitting Mine in Hormuz - ASHARQ AL-AWSAT English demand, 2026-11-14
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift 0 citing none
Every pre-registered entry (4)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 15:15 5 new signals | 6.5% | 6.5% | f1637f4a1a4c |
| 2026-11-14 09:15 1 new signal | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5bcb279654f5 |
| 2026-11-14 02:15 6 new signals | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6117d0706aab |
| 2026-11-13 22:15 first forecast | 8.5% | 8.5% | 06525f0f9493 |
Embed this forecast
Paste this where you want the live number. It updates with each pre-registered entry and links back here.
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