Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
q08 says 71.6%; the market says 64.5% (+7 points). Settles by 2026-12-31.
Official US statements declaring the war 'effectively over' and no deal needed reduce the perceived likelihood of renewed major hostilities before year-end, increasing ceasefire persistence odds beyond the crowd's 64.5%.
What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Any Israeli or Iranian official statement or military mobilization contradicting the 'effectively over' narrative within the next week.
Financial market: Brent crude oil 107.03 $/bbl on 2026-11-03. Typical daily move 12.275 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-12 21:15 UTC, ledger hash 3f53c07fefdd01e6, before the event.
- Updated in the open2 entries, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-12 23:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-12-31. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Markets that reprice with it
| Question | Yes | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 7.5% | $257,007 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 64% | $236,449 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | 8.5% | $202,306 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 20.3% | $190,489 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | 7.5% | $183,633 |
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 Oil prices fall to lowest since August as Trump says Iran war is ‘effectively over’ rss, 2026-11-12
- E2 Trump says no deal needed on Iran war and orders Vance to focus on domestic issues rss, 2026-11-12
- E3 Rubio Says ‘Major Combat Operations’ in Iran War Are No Longer Needed rss, 2026-11-12
- E4 No Good Choices on Iran rss, 2026-11-12
- E5 Lewis Hamilton says ‘Israel’s genocide in Gaza is appalling’ after Rafah visit rss, 2026-11-12
- E6 Son of Iran's shah receives 'Freedom Prize' in Frankfurt rss, 2026-11-12
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0.5 citing E1, E2, E3
- kimi-k2.6: shift 0.8 citing E1, E2, E3
Every pre-registered entry (2)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 23:15 1 new signal | 71.6% | 64.5% | d8963f3a0ce4 |
| 2026-11-12 21:15 first forecast | 56.5% | 56.5% | 3f53c07fefdd |