Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 18?
q08 says 95.6%; the market says 95.6%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-11-18.
q08 forecast
95.6%
Market (coherent)
95.6%
Simulated P&L
no position
What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Any official statement from Israel or Iran on ceasefire status by November 18.
Financial market: Brent crude oil 92.14 $/bbl on 2026-11-11. Typical daily move 11.964 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-14 05:15 UTC, ledger hash 3c367b5bb8e2667e, before the event.
- Updated in the open1 entry, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-14 05:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-11-18. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Markets that reprice with it
| Question | Yes | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 64% | $236,449 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 20.3% | $190,489 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8? | 25.5% | $88,301 |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 7% | $72,591 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 7.5% | $57,327 |
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 Netanyahu and Eisenkot clash over whether Israel should strike Iran again demand, 2026-11-13
- E2 Iran war live: Fighting grips Yemen as Qatar, Turkiye sign defence deal rss, 2026-11-14
- E3 Iran Braces for a Budget Without Oil Revenue rss, 2026-11-13
- E4 Eisenkot accuses Netanyahu of ‘racist’ campaign against Israel’s Arab minority rss, 2026-11-13
- E5 Iran Shipping Update – November 13, 2026 demand, 2026-11-13
- E6 ‘Colossal mistake’: Gov. Newsom tells Iranian filmmaker about Iran war demand, 2026-11-13
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift 0 citing none
Every pre-registered entry (1)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 05:15 first forecast | 95.6% | 95.6% | 3c367b5bb8e2 |
Embed this forecast
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