Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
q08 says 77%; the market says 77%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-11-30.
Multiple senior US officials (Trump, Vance, Rubio) explicitly declaring the Iran war 'effectively over' and shifting focus away suggests the ceasefire is stable and likely to hold, but this may already be priced in at 77%; the unanimity and specificity of 'no deal needed' slightly increases confiden
What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Any official joint statement from Israel and Iran extending or formalizing the ceasefire beyond November 30.
Financial market: Brent crude oil 107.03 $/bbl on 2026-11-03. Typical daily move 12.275 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-12 15:15 UTC, ledger hash 6ac585d522e837a7, before the event.
- Updated in the open7 entries, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-12 22:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-11-30. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Markets that reprice with it
| Question | Yes | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 7.5% | $256,996 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 64% | $236,449 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | 8.5% | $202,306 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 20.3% | $190,489 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | 7.5% | $183,633 |
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 Oil prices fall to lowest since August as Trump says Iran war is ‘effectively over’ rss, 2026-11-12
- E2 Trump says no deal needed on Iran war and orders Vance to focus on domestic issues rss, 2026-11-12
- E3 Rubio Says ‘Major Combat Operations’ in Iran War Are No Longer Needed rss, 2026-11-12
- E4 No Good Choices on Iran rss, 2026-11-12
- E5 Lewis Hamilton says ‘Israel’s genocide in Gaza is appalling’ after Rafah visit rss, 2026-11-12
- E6 Son of Iran's shah receives 'Freedom Prize' in Frankfurt rss, 2026-11-12
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift 0.5 citing E1, E2, E3
Every pre-registered entry (7)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 22:15 1 new signal | 77% | 77% | 1c07092112f7 |
| 2026-11-12 20:15 3 new signals | 77.5% | 77.5% | 89ddbaa8fb69 |
| 2026-11-12 19:15 4 new signals | 77% | 77% | 03f806532642 |
| 2026-11-12 18:15 2 new signals | 79% | 79% | bc821dd598cb |
| 2026-11-12 17:15 3 new signals | 82.5% | 82.5% | b5604e702423 |
| 2026-11-12 16:15 3 new signals | 82% | 82% | bc46b9d7e551 |
| 2026-11-12 15:15 first forecast | 74.5% | 74.5% | 6ac585d522e8 |