Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31?
q08 says 57.5%; the market says 46.9% (+11 points). Settles by 2026-12-31.
The board reportedly prepping to oust the CEO is direct, actionable information that likely hasn't been fully priced in, and successor speculation confirms the board is actively considering replacement, raising the probability of removal by year-end.
What it moves: Leadership of a listed company: its share price, and its suppliers' and customers'.
Watch: Any official Nvidia board statement or SEC filing confirming a vote on Jensen Huang's removal within the next week.
Financial market: Nasdaq-100 index 28374.25 on 2026-11-11. Typical daily move 1.485 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-12 10:15 UTC, ledger hash 82514e343329efb1, before the event.
- Updated in the open3 entries, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-12 13:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-12-31. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 Jensen Huang affair in DC: Resignation calls and moves to tighten Nvidia China exports rss, 2026-11-12
- E2 Congress to call Jensen Huang in to answer for alleged Chinese spy affair rss, 2026-11-12
- E3 Jensen Huang accused of having another affair — with an Nvidia exec rss, 2026-11-12
- E4 Nvidia’s stock drops as board reportedly preps to oust CEO Jensen Huang rss, 2026-11-12
- E5 The unfolding Jensen Huang scandal: a timeline rss, 2026-11-12
- E6 Who could replace Jensen Huang? A highly unscientific list of possible successors rss, 2026-11-12
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0.5 citing E4, E6
- kimi-k2.6: shift 1.2 citing E4, E2, E1
Every pre-registered entry (3)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 13:15 6 new signals | 57.5% | 46.9% | 7c3f8eb9d6c7 |
| 2026-11-12 12:15 2 new signals | 62.6% | 52.8% | 575d10780709 |
| 2026-11-12 10:15 first forecast | 59.4% | 48.9% | 82514e343329 |