Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
q08 says 9.5%; the market says 9.5%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-11-30.
q08 forecast
9.5%
Market (coherent)
9.5%
Simulated P&L
no position
What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Any official announcement of a meeting date or direct US-Iran negotiation channel opening before Nov 30.
Financial market: Brent crude oil 107.03 $/bbl on 2026-11-03. Typical daily move 12.275 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched1 public signal matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-12 15:15 UTC, ledger hash 043b21015181179a, before the event.
- Updated in the open2 entries, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-12 19:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-11-30. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Markets that reprice with it
| Question | Yes | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | 7.5% | $183,633 |
Evidence (1) and the models' verdicts
- E1 UAE's Gargash warns of prolonged regional uncertainty, says US-Iran settlement appears difficult gnews, 2026-11-09
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift 0 citing none
Every pre-registered entry (2)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 19:15 crowd moved -6 pts | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0419f55ada5b |
| 2026-11-12 15:15 first forecast | 16% | 16% | 043b21015181 |