Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?
q08 says 69.9%; the market says 69.9%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-12-31.
House Republicans have already blocked/shelved impeachment articles and Trump explicitly committed to standing by Hegseth even if impeached, making successful impeachment by year-end highly unlikely given GOP House control.
What it moves: The officials and rules that set contracts, tariffs and budgets.
Watch: Whether the House schedules a floor vote on impeachment articles before December 31.
Financial market: 10-year Treasury yield 4.98% on 2026-11-10. Typical daily move 0.781 points; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 points over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-12 18:15 UTC, ledger hash cad06898b1dea852, before the event.
- Updated in the open1 entry, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-12 18:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-12-31. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Markets that reprice with it
| Question | Yes | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | 15.5% | $70,775 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? | 5.1% | $37,088 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21? | 2.1% | $30,518 |
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth reprimanded at war memorial rss, 2026-11-12
- E2 Pete Hegseth impeachment effort blocked by House Republicans gnews, 2026-11-10
- E3 House GOP shelves Pete Hegseth impeachment articles gnews, 2026-11-10
- E4 Secretary of War Pete Hegseth Holds a Press Briefing gnews, 2026-11-10
- E5 Thomas Massie files articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gnews, 2026-11-09
- E6 Trump says he'd 'stand by' Hegseth even if he's impeached gnews, 2026-11-09
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift -1.2 citing E2, E3, E6
Every pre-registered entry (1)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 18:15 first forecast | 69.9% | 69.9% | cad06898b1de |