Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
q08 says 42.5%; the market says 42.5%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-12-31.
q08 forecast
42.5%
Market (coherent)
42.5%
Simulated P&L
no position
What it moves: The officials and rules that set contracts, tariffs and budgets.
Watch: Any news about Hegseth's resignation, Senate confirmation of a successor, or White House statements on his status.
Financial market: 10-year Treasury yield 4.98% on 2026-11-10. Typical daily move 0.781 points; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 points over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched1 public signal matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-12 12:15 UTC, ledger hash 82a7b225f9e0fc10, before the event.
- Updated in the open1 entry, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-12 12:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-12-31. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Markets that reprice with it
| Question | Yes | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Dana F. White Jr be the next White House Press Secretary? | 2.1% | $82,858 |
| Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026? | 3.2% | $24,842 |
Evidence (1) and the models' verdicts
- E1 From Attack Surface to Defense Architecture: Compositional Security for Agentic Coding Harnesses arxiv, 2026-11-12
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift 0 citing none
Every pre-registered entry (1)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 12:15 first forecast | 42.5% | 42.5% | 82a7b225f9e0 |