Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21?
q08 says 2.2%; the market says 2.2%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-11-21.
q08 forecast
2.2%
Market (coherent)
2.2%
Simulated P&L
no position
What it moves: The officials and rules that set contracts, tariffs and budgets.
Watch: Any announcement of resignation or removal by the White House before Nov 21.
Financial market: 10-year Treasury yield 5.1% on 2026-11-12. Typical daily move 0.942 points; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 points over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-13 21:15 UTC, ledger hash c32bb9580324ffcb, before the event.
- Updated in the open1 entry, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-13 21:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-11-21. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Markets that reprice with it
| Question | Yes | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Dana F. White Jr be the next White House Press Secretary? | 2.1% | $82,858 |
| Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026? | 2.4% | $8,768 |
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 Thomas Massie files articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gnews, 2026-11-09
- E2 US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth reprimanded at war memorial rss, 2026-11-12
- E3 Secretary of War Pete Hegseth Holds a Press Briefing gnews, 2026-11-10
- E4 US House blocks bid to impeach Defense Secretary Hegseth gnews, 2026-11-10
- E5 Pete Hegseth honors soldier who scolded him at Arlington cemetery rss, 2026-11-12
- E6 Pete Hegseth impeachment effort blocked by House Republicans gnews, 2026-11-10
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift 0 citing none
Every pre-registered entry (1)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 21:15 first forecast | 2.2% | 2.2% | c32bb9580324 |
Embed this forecast
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