Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
q08 says 28.5%; the market says 28.5%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-11-30.
q08 forecast
28.5%
Market (coherent)
28.5%
Simulated P&L
no position
House Republicans blocking impeachment removes the most plausible near-term removal mechanism, making Hegseth's survival through November 30 more likely than the 28.5% price suggests.
What it moves: The officials and rules that set contracts, tariffs and budgets.
Watch: Any news of a second impeachment attempt or a White House statement of resignation before Nov 30.
Financial market: 10-year Treasury yield 4.98% on 2026-11-10. Typical daily move 0.781 points; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 points over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-12 11:15 UTC, ledger hash ba35dc786a29c2c2, before the event.
- Updated in the open2 entries, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-12 14:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-11-30. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Markets that reprice with it
| Question | Yes | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Dana F. White Jr be the next White House Press Secretary? | 2.1% | $82,858 |
| Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026? | 3.2% | $24,842 |
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 Thomas Massie files articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gnews, 2026-11-09
- E2 Secretary of War Pete Hegseth Holds a Press Briefing gnews, 2026-11-10
- E3 US House blocks bid to impeach Defense Secretary Hegseth gnews, 2026-11-10
- E4 Pete Hegseth impeachment effort blocked by House Republicans gnews, 2026-11-10
- E5 House GOP shelves Pete Hegseth impeachment articles gnews, 2026-11-10
- E6 Republican Thomas Massie moves to force vote to impeach Pete Hegseth gnews, 2026-11-09
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift -0.5 citing E3, E4, E5
Every pre-registered entry (2)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 14:15 6 new signals | 28.5% | 28.5% | 0a5cf875c726 |
| 2026-11-12 11:15 first forecast | 28.5% | 28.5% | ba35dc786a29 |