Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by November 15, 2026?

Prisoner exchange and explicit expansion to include Europe in next round of talks suggests momentum toward broader agreements, but no direct mention of energy infrastructure ceasefire specifically.

What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Any official joint statement from Russia and Ukraine specifically announcing an energy infrastructure ceasefire before November 15.

Financial market: Brent crude oil 92.14 $/bbl on 2026-11-11. Typical daily move 11.964 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.

From signal to settlement

1. Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
2. Pre-registered2026-11-13 07:15 UTC, ledger hash 2ba8f02040209e04, before the event.
3. Updated in the open1 entry, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-13 07:15 UTC.
4. Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-11-15. The market.
5. Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.

Markets that reprice with it