Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
q08 says 6.5%; the market says 6.5%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-12-31.
E1 confirms active tanker attacks are ongoing, E2 signals Iranian intent to permanently disrupt status quo, and E6 shows Trump framing blockade as historic, suggesting escalation rather than resolution within 7 weeks.
What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Any official announcement of full resumption of normal shipping schedules through the Strait by mid-December.
Financial market: Brent crude oil 107.03 $/bbl on 2026-11-03. Typical daily move 12.275 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-13 01:15 UTC, ledger hash d3a9ed8d3d927f94, before the event.
- Updated in the open1 entry, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-13 01:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-12-31. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says 2 oil tankers exploded in Strait of Hormuz gnews, 2026-11-12
- E2 Hormuz Strait will ‘never return’ to pre-war status, Iran’s Ghalibaf says gnews, 2026-11-11
- E3 Bypass the Strait of Hormuz? Why That’s Not So Easy gnews, 2026-11-11
- E4 Uncertainty Surrounds Possible Attack on Oman's Strait of Hormuz Lighthouse gnews, 2026-11-10
- E5 Strait of Hormuz still a source of leverage for Iran despite US efforts to protect commercial shipping gnews, 2026-11-10
- E6 Trump calls Strait of Hormuz blockade ‘history’s greatest’ gnews, 2026-11-09
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift -1.5 citing E1, E2, E6
Every pre-registered entry (1)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 01:15 first forecast | 6.5% | 6.5% | d3a9ed8d3d92 |