Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
q08 says 2.5%; the market says 2.5%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-11-30.
E1 confirms active attacks on tankers, E2 signals Iranian intent to maintain disruption indefinitely, and E6 shows Trump framing blockade as historic, suggesting escalation rather than resolution—all making normalization by Nov 30 far less likely than 2.5% implies.
What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Reports of tanker transits or official shipping advisories resuming normal schedules in the Strait by Nov 20-25.
Financial market: Brent crude oil 107.03 $/bbl on 2026-11-03. Typical daily move 12.275 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-13 00:15 UTC, ledger hash e74761f2bbed7ef2, before the event.
- Updated in the open1 entry, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-13 00:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-11-30. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says 2 oil tankers exploded in Strait of Hormuz gnews, 2026-11-12
- E2 Hormuz Strait will ‘never return’ to pre-war status, Iran’s Ghalibaf says gnews, 2026-11-11
- E3 Bypass the Strait of Hormuz? Why That’s Not So Easy gnews, 2026-11-11
- E4 Uncertainty Surrounds Possible Attack on Oman's Strait of Hormuz Lighthouse gnews, 2026-11-10
- E5 Strait of Hormuz still a source of leverage for Iran despite US efforts to protect commercial shipping gnews, 2026-11-10
- E6 Trump calls Strait of Hormuz blockade ‘history’s greatest’ gnews, 2026-11-09
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift -1.5 citing E1, E2, E6
Every pre-registered entry (1)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 00:15 first forecast | 2.5% | 2.5% | e74761f2bbed |