US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

E2 suggests escalating US-Iran confrontation (military assault or tighter sanctions, not ending blockade), E5 shows heightened Iranian threat posture against US officials, and E6 reveals selective enforcement of Hormuz restrictions inconsistent with ending blockade soon.

What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Any official US statement or UN resolution specifically mentioning lifting the Iranian blockade before Dec 31.

Financial market: Brent crude oil 107.03 $/bbl on 2026-11-03. Typical daily move 12.275 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.

From signal to settlement

1. Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
2. Pre-registered2026-11-12 17:15 UTC, ledger hash fcfed67ccdc9ced2, before the event.
3. Updated in the open3 entries, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-12 21:15 UTC.
4. Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-12-31. The market.
5. Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.

Markets that reprice with it