US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?

E2 suggests escalating US-Iran tensions with military or sanctions threats, E5 reveals alleged Iranian threats against top US officials, and E6 indicates ongoing Iranian control of Hormuz with Chinese favoritism—all making a sudden blockade end by Nov 15 less plausible.

What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Any official US or Iranian statement about lifting or tightening the blockade before November 15.

Financial market: Brent crude oil 107.03 $/bbl on 2026-11-03. Typical daily move 12.275 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.

From signal to settlement

1. Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
2. Pre-registered2026-11-13 00:15 UTC, ledger hash cbfd47bde0de79a1, before the event.
3. Updated in the open1 entry, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-13 00:15 UTC.
4. Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-11-15. The market.
5. Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.

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