US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
q08 says 8.5%; the market says 8.5%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-11-30.
E2 indicates Trump is planning escalation (military assault or tighter sanctions), not de-escalation; E5 shows heightened US-Iran tensions with alleged threats against Treasury Secretary; E6 reveals Iranian officials are selectively enforcing Hormuz access, suggesting ongoing blockade leverage rathe
What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Any official US or Iranian statement about lifting or easing the blockade before Nov 30.
Financial market: Brent crude oil 107.03 $/bbl on 2026-11-03. Typical daily move 12.275 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-12 15:15 UTC, ledger hash e71b3d3dcf6259c4, before the event.
- Updated in the open3 entries, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-12 20:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-11-30. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Markets that reprice with it
| Question | Yes | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 2.5% | $75,395 |
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 Iranian men guilty of spying on British journalists rss, 2026-11-12
- E2 Trump planning new military assault or tighter sanctions, say Iranian officials rss, 2026-11-12
- E3 UK court convicts 2 Iranian men of spying on journalists rss, 2026-11-12
- E4 UK court finds two Iranian men guilty of spying for Iran rss, 2026-11-12
- E5 US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent relocated after alleged Iranian threats rss, 2026-11-12
- E6 Strait of Hormuz: Chinese ships get free pass, Iranian official says gnews, 2026-11-06
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift -1.2 citing E2, E5, E6
Every pre-registered entry (3)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 20:15 1 new signal | 8.5% | 8.5% | 52ff0e77c922 |
| 2026-11-12 16:15 3 new signals | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7b6fcf5e91a1 |
| 2026-11-12 15:15 first forecast | 19.5% | 19.5% | e71b3d3dcf62 |