US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
q08 says 7.5%; the market says 7.5%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-12-31.
Trump's explicit rejection of a deal and the resulting oil price spike directly lower the probability of a final nuclear deal by year-end, which the crowd may not have fully priced in given the 7.5% baseline.
What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Any subsequent Trump or Vance statement softening the stance or announcing renewed negotiations within the next week.
Financial market: Brent crude oil 107.03 $/bbl on 2026-11-03. Typical daily move 12.275 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-12 10:15 UTC, ledger hash c9ee680055330efb, before the event.
- Updated in the open4 entries, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-12 22:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-12-31. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Markets that reprice with it
| Question | Yes | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | 9.5% | $46,064 |
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 Cerebras surges 18% after beating on quarterly revenue and announcing Microsoft deal rss, 2026-11-12
- E2 Trump says no deal needed on Iran war and orders Vance to focus on domestic issues rss, 2026-11-12
- E3 Feds Greenlight Construction of Advanced Nuclear Reactors in Texas rss, 2026-11-12
- E4 Glycosylation and importins liquefy the FG barrier in live nuclear pores rss, 2026-11-12
- E5 Brent Briefly Hits $94 After Trump Says U.S. Has No Need for Iran Deal rss, 2026-11-12
- E6 The SS United States takes its final voyage to the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico rss, 2026-11-12
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0.5 citing E2, E5
- kimi-k2.6: shift -1.5 citing E2, E5
Every pre-registered entry (4)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 22:15 1 new signal | 7.5% | 7.5% | 11449a838daf |
| 2026-11-12 20:15 6 new signals | 3.7% | 7.5% | 5d572f04c924 |
| 2026-11-12 12:15 1 new signal | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0c9828e947da |
| 2026-11-12 10:15 first forecast | 9.5% | 9.5% | c9ee68005533 |