Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?
q08 says 95.9%; the market says 95.9%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-11-20.
q08 forecast
95.9%
Market (coherent)
95.9%
Simulated P&L
no position
What it moves: The price and timing of a major capital raise or deal, and its read-across to peers.
Watch: Any official SEC filing or Anthropic statement postponing or canceling the IPO before November 20.
Financial market: S&P 500 index 7619.38 on 2026-11-11. Typical daily move 10.95 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-12 10:15 UTC, ledger hash 89976e519c622845, before the event.
- Updated in the open6 entries, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-12 18:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-11-20. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 Anthropic’s Giant IPO Will Tie It Closer to Nvidia rss, 2026-11-12
- E2 Anthropic IPO hn, 2026-11-12
- E3 Anthropic IPO buyers see valuation as low as $1.1T hn, 2026-11-06
- E4 Anthropic IPO filing: $1.7B quarterly payroll, about $107K per employee monthly hn, 2026-11-03
- E5 The SEC Should Block Anthropic's IPO to Protect the Public hn, 2026-11-03
- E6 Anthropic Targets Valuation of Up to $1.4 Trillion for Blockbuster I.P.O. rss, 2026-11-12
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift 0 citing none
Every pre-registered entry (6)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 18:15 1 new signal | 95.9% | 95.9% | 37bc4bde9136 |
| 2026-11-12 17:15 1 new signal | 96.8% | 96.8% | 0c8d24a1d42b |
| 2026-11-12 16:15 3 new signals | 95.3% | 95.3% | 67b20f5ecacd |
| 2026-11-12 12:15 1 new signal | 92% | 92% | eb44b6685eb4 |
| 2026-11-12 11:15 crowd moved -9 pts | 84.9% | 84.9% | 7345e51a6bf7 |
| 2026-11-12 10:15 first forecast | 93.5% | 93.5% | 89976e519c62 |