Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
q08 says 4.5%; the market says 4.5%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-12-31.
q08 forecast
4.5%
Market (coherent)
4.5%
Simulated P&L
no position
What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Any major OPEC+ production cut announcement or unplanned supply disruption in the next week.
Financial market: Brent crude oil 107.03 $/bbl on 2026-11-03. Typical daily move 12.275 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-12 21:15 UTC, ledger hash 9217d77709b6c26e, before the event.
- Updated in the open4 entries, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-13 00:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-12-31. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 EIA forecasts Alaskan crude oil production to grow 13% in 2027 rss, 2026-11-12
- E2 Angola Looks to Diversify from Crude with Windfall Oil Revenues rss, 2026-11-12
- E3 India Boosts Gulf Oil Imports as Russian Crude Loses Its Price Advantage rss, 2026-11-12
- E4 U.S. crude oil imports from Venezuela in July were highest since 2017 rss, 2026-11-12
- E5 Venezuela Ends 19-Year Power Monopoly, With Oil Fields First in Line rss, 2026-11-12
- E6 More Drilling Won’t Shield U.S. Consumers From Oil Price Shocks rss, 2026-11-12
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift 0 citing none
Every pre-registered entry (4)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 00:15 1 new signal | 4.5% | 4.5% | cb3d08705038 |
| 2026-11-12 23:15 1 new signal | 4.5% | 4.5% | 342272fc53f2 |
| 2026-11-12 22:15 2 new signals | 4.5% | 4.5% | b6ab4c21bb87 |
| 2026-11-12 21:15 first forecast | 7% | 7% | 9217d77709b6 |