Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
q08 says 2.8%; the market says 2.8%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-12-31.
q08 forecast
2.8%
Market (coherent)
2.8%
Simulated P&L
no position
What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Any sign of mass protests or military defections inside Iran in the next week.
Financial market: Brent crude oil 107.03 $/bbl on 2026-11-03. Typical daily move 12.275 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-12 23:15 UTC, ledger hash 19d738035f7a6e89, before the event.
- Updated in the open1 entry, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-12 23:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-12-31. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Markets that reprice with it
| Question | Yes | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | 8.5% | $143,102 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 27.9% | $108,876 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | 1.7% | $95,205 |
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 Iranian men guilty of spying on British journalists rss, 2026-11-12
- E2 Trump planning new military assault or tighter sanctions, say Iranian officials rss, 2026-11-12
- E3 UK court convicts 2 Iranian men of spying on journalists rss, 2026-11-12
- E4 UK court finds two Iranian men guilty of spying for Iran rss, 2026-11-12
- E5 US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent relocated after alleged Iranian threats rss, 2026-11-12
- E6 Strait of Hormuz: Chinese ships get free pass, Iranian official says gnews, 2026-11-06
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift 0 citing none
Every pre-registered entry (1)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 23:15 first forecast | 2.8% | 2.8% | 19d738035f7a |