Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
q08 says 7.5%; the market says 7.5%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-12-31.
Multiple high-level U.S. officials including Trump explicitly declaring the Iran war 'effectively over' and redirecting leadership to domestic issues directly contradicts the precondition for invasion, making near-term invasion extremely unlikely.
What it moves: Oil and shipping prices, defence stocks and inflation expectations.
Watch: Any official U.S. military mobilization or new executive order authorizing force against Iran.
Financial market: Brent crude oil 107.03 $/bbl on 2026-11-03. Typical daily move 12.275 %; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 % over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-12 13:15 UTC, ledger hash 644ef244b1e8a4c6, before the event.
- Updated in the open7 entries, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-12 22:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-12-31. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Markets that reprice with it
| Question | Yes | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | 94.6% | $376,801 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | 8.5% | $202,306 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | 7.5% | $183,633 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? | 85.5% | $152,746 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8? | 13.5% | $113,772 |
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 Oil prices fall to lowest since August as Trump says Iran war is ‘effectively over’ rss, 2026-11-12
- E2 Trump says no deal needed on Iran war and orders Vance to focus on domestic issues rss, 2026-11-12
- E3 Rubio Says ‘Major Combat Operations’ in Iran War Are No Longer Needed rss, 2026-11-12
- E4 No Good Choices on Iran rss, 2026-11-12
- E5 Son of Iran's shah receives 'Freedom Prize' in Frankfurt rss, 2026-11-12
- E6 Brent Briefly Hits $94 After Trump Says U.S. Has No Need for Iran Deal rss, 2026-11-12
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift -1.5 citing E1, E2, E3
Every pre-registered entry (7)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 22:15 1 new signal | 7.5% | 7.5% | a22380175ee2 |
| 2026-11-12 20:15 3 new signals | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6934160a54bd |
| 2026-11-12 19:15 2 new signals | 8.5% | 8.5% | a04cf13f79fd |
| 2026-11-12 17:15 2 new signals | 7.5% | 7.5% | 50ce2bbbd28a |
| 2026-11-12 16:15 6 new signals | 7.5% | 7.5% | ceaa94268171 |
| 2026-11-12 14:15 1 new signal | 12.5% | 12.5% | 2d0fc86665d9 |
| 2026-11-12 13:15 first forecast | 12.5% | 12.5% | 644ef244b1e8 |