Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
q08 says 1.4%; the market says 1.4%, so q08 agrees with it. Settles by 2026-12-31.
Multiple headlines signal strong market expectation of continued rate hikes through 2026, making a December 2026 pause increasingly unlikely as the Fed appears to be in an active hiking cycle with divided officials still leaning toward faster increases.
What it moves: Borrowing costs: mortgage rates, bond prices and equity valuations.
Watch: Any Fed statement or official projection in the next week explicitly mentioning the December 2026 meeting or a pause in hikes.
Financial market: 2-year Treasury yield 4.73% on 2026-11-10. Typical daily move 0.716 points; since this forecast was pre-registered it moved +0 points over 1 trading day, 0 typical moves up. Context for how the same question is priced outside prediction markets, not a position.
From signal to settlement
- Signals matched6 public signals matched to the question by name.
- Pre-registered2026-11-12 10:15 UTC, ledger hash 9778905c63941929, before the event.
- Updated in the open3 entries, each chained to the one before; the latest at 2026-11-12 23:15 UTC.
- Settles on the eventsettles when the market closes at 0 or 1; the engine reads the closed price and scores its last forecast against the crowd's price at that moment; due by 2026-12-31. The market.
- Scored in publicOpen. When it settles, the result is posted and kept here and on the ledger, right or wrong.
Evidence (6) and the models' verdicts
- E1 In a policy switch, the Fed says its October 2027 meeting will not see a vote on interest rates rss, 2026-11-12
- E2 Fed Will Not Hold Policy Vote at October 2027 Meeting rss, 2026-11-12
- E3 Bond yields just saw their biggest surge since 2022 as expectations grow for more Fed rate hikes rss, 2026-11-12
- E4 Elevated Inflation Keeps Pressure on Fed to Raise Rates rss, 2026-11-12
- E5 The Fed Has to Raise Rates. How Fast to Go Has Officials Divided. rss, 2026-11-12
- E6 10-year Treasury yield jumps back above 5% as oil gains and more Fed rate hikes expected rss, 2026-11-12
- deepseek-v4-flash-0731: shift 0 citing none
- kimi-k2.6: shift -1.5 citing E3, E4, E5, E6
Every pre-registered entry (3)
| When (UTC) | q08 | Market | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 23:15 1 new signal | 1.4% | 1.4% | 8a5c7683c528 |
| 2026-11-12 21:15 5 new signals | 1.6% | 1.6% | 8577d3beccba |
| 2026-11-12 10:15 first forecast | 22.5% | 22.5% | 9778905c6394 |